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Politics·Trump

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

icon for Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Politics·Trump

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

$217,845 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$217,845 Vol.

Polymarket

Stefan Brodie

$0 Vol.

54%

Matt Gaetz

$37 Vol.

51%

Daniel Penny

$11 Vol.

48%

Donald Brodie

$0 Vol.

47%

Keonne Rodriguez

$9,371 Vol.

35%

Eric Adams

$106 Vol.

18%

Steve Bannon

$6,758 Vol.

20%

Edward Snowden

$1,755 Vol.

20%

Julian Assange

$1,550 Vol.

17%

Sam Bankman-Fried

$36,293 Vol.

17%

Ghislaine Maxwell

$13,552 Vol.

12%

Ryan Salame

$15,196 Vol.

12%

Elizabeth Holmes

$1,130 Vol.

12%

Nicolas Maduro

$6,685 Vol.

10%

Do Kwon

$16,325 Vol.

9%

Himself

$3,978 Vol.

7%

Diddy

$7,527 Vol.

7%

Joe Exotic

$330 Vol.

7%

Derek Chauvin

$18,431 Vol.

12%

Martin Shkreli

$22,458 Vol.

7%

Young Thug

$4,269 Vol.

6%

Antoine Massey

$0 Vol.

7%

Elon Musk

$49,513 Vol.

4%

Hunter Biden

$2,046 Vol.

3%

Roger Ver

$418 Vol.

45%

Roger Stone

$0 Vol.

44%

Bob Menendez

$108 Vol.

37%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump has granted executive clemency to over 1,600 individuals since his January 2025 inauguration, including a blanket pardon for nearly all January 6 Capitol attack defendants, alongside waves of white-collar and public corruption cases that drew recent scrutiny. The White House is now weighing plans for 250 additional pardons to mark America's 250th anniversary on July 4, 2026, with possible announcements near Flag Day or Independence Day, spurring trader interest in unresolved high-profile cases. Key figures like Samourai Wallet co-founder Keonne Rodriguez—whose pardon Trump reviewed last year—and billionaire brothers Donald and Stefan Brodie, convicted of Cuba sanctions violations and major Trump donors, represent leading prospects amid crypto sector lobbying and end-of-term mass pardon rumors. Official DOJ updates and presidential statements will drive resolutions before January 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$217,845
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump has granted executive clemency to over 1,600 individuals since his January 2025 inauguration, including a blanket pardon for nearly all January 6 Capitol attack defendants, alongside waves of white-collar and public corruption cases that drew recent scrutiny. The White House is now weighing plans for 250 additional pardons to mark America's 250th anniversary on July 4, 2026, with possible announcements near Flag Day or Independence Day, spurring trader interest in unresolved high-profile cases. Key figures like Samourai Wallet co-founder Keonne Rodriguez—whose pardon Trump reviewed last year—and billionaire brothers Donald and Stefan Brodie, convicted of Cuba sanctions violations and major Trump donors, represent leading prospects amid crypto sector lobbying and end-of-term mass pardon rumors. Official DOJ updates and presidential statements will drive resolutions before January 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$217,845
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 27 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Stefan Brodie" at 54%, followed by "Matt Gaetz" at 51%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" has generated $217.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?," browse the 27 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is "Stefan Brodie" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Matt Gaetz" at 51%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.