Recent polling from firms including Quaest, BTG Pactual/Nexus, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each drawing roughly 33–42 percent in first-round scenarios, with the remaining support scattered among candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and others. No contender approaches the absolute majority of valid votes required for an outright victory on October 4. Brazil’s multi-party system and historical pattern—every presidential election since 2002 has advanced to a runoff—reinforce trader expectations of a second round on October 25. Current surveys indicate no late consolidation sufficient to alter that trajectory before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$292,983 Vol.
$292,983 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
7% chance
$292,983 Vol.
$292,983 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from firms including Quaest, BTG Pactual/Nexus, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each drawing roughly 33–42 percent in first-round scenarios, with the remaining support scattered among candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and others. No contender approaches the absolute majority of valid votes required for an outright victory on October 4. Brazil’s multi-party system and historical pattern—every presidential election since 2002 has advanced to a runoff—reinforce trader expectations of a second round on October 25. Current surveys indicate no late consolidation sufficient to alter that trajectory before voting.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$292,983End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from firms including Quaest, BTG Pactual/Nexus, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each drawing roughly 33–42 percent in first-round scenarios, with the remaining support scattered among candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and others. No contender approaches the absolute majority of valid votes required for an outright victory on October 4. Brazil’s multi-party system and historical pattern—every presidential election since 2002 has advanced to a runoff—reinforce trader expectations of a second round on October 25. Current surveys indicate no late consolidation sufficient to alter that trajectory before voting.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$292,983End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from firms including Quaest, BTG Pactual/Nexus, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each drawing roughly 33–42 percent in first-round scenarios, with the remaining support scattered among candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and others. No contender approaches the absolute majority of valid votes required for an outright victory on October 4. Brazil’s multi-party system and historical pattern—every presidential election since 2002 has advanced to a runoff—reinforce trader expectations of a second round on October 25. Current surveys indicate no late consolidation sufficient to alter that trajectory before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions