Canada’s unemployment rate has declined steadily through mid-2026, reaching 6.4% in July after peaking near 6.9% in April and 7.1% in late 2025—levels approaching but not exceeding the post-2016 high of roughly 7.1%. Recent Statistics Canada data show net employment gains of 75,100 in July alongside rising labor-force participation, reflecting stabilization in job creation and reduced slack despite earlier tariff-related weakness. Bank of Canada communications and economist forecasts point to a 2026 average near 6.6%, with the rate expected to hold or ease further absent major shocks. This trajectory underpins the 92.8% market-implied probability against exceeding the 2016-era peak. Potential escalation in U.S. tariffs effective later this month or renewed energy-price volatility could still push monthly readings higher and test that consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
NEW
NEW
Feb 15, 2027
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Feb 15, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.Canada’s unemployment rate has declined steadily through mid-2026, reaching 6.4% in July after peaking near 6.9% in April and 7.1% in late 2025—levels approaching but not exceeding the post-2016 high of roughly 7.1%. Recent Statistics Canada data show net employment gains of 75,100 in July alongside rising labor-force participation, reflecting stabilization in job creation and reduced slack despite earlier tariff-related weakness. Bank of Canada communications and economist forecasts point to a 2026 average near 6.6%, with the rate expected to hold or ease further absent major shocks. This trajectory underpins the 92.8% market-implied probability against exceeding the 2016-era peak. Potential escalation in U.S. tariffs effective later this month or renewed energy-price volatility could still push monthly readings higher and test that consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Market Opened: Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$9,375End Date
Feb 15, 2027Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.Canada’s unemployment rate has declined steadily through mid-2026, reaching 6.4% in July after peaking near 6.9% in April and 7.1% in late 2025—levels approaching but not exceeding the post-2016 high of roughly 7.1%. Recent Statistics Canada data show net employment gains of 75,100 in July alongside rising labor-force participation, reflecting stabilization in job creation and reduced slack despite earlier tariff-related weakness. Bank of Canada communications and economist forecasts point to a 2026 average near 6.6%, with the rate expected to hold or ease further absent major shocks. This trajectory underpins the 92.8% market-implied probability against exceeding the 2016-era peak. Potential escalation in U.S. tariffs effective later this month or renewed energy-price volatility could still push monthly readings higher and test that consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Volume
$9,375End Date
Feb 15, 2027Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada’s unemployment rate has declined steadily through mid-2026, reaching 6.4% in July after peaking near 6.9% in April and 7.1% in late 2025—levels approaching but not exceeding the post-2016 high of roughly 7.1%. Recent Statistics Canada data show net employment gains of 75,100 in July alongside rising labor-force participation, reflecting stabilization in job creation and reduced slack despite earlier tariff-related weakness. Bank of Canada communications and economist forecasts point to a 2026 average near 6.6%, with the rate expected to hold or ease further absent major shocks. This trajectory underpins the 92.8% market-implied probability against exceeding the 2016-era peak. Potential escalation in U.S. tariffs effective later this month or renewed energy-price volatility could still push monthly readings higher and test that consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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