The ongoing Musk v. Altman trial in federal court, now at the jury deliberation stage after closing arguments concluded on May 14, has driven the 71% market-implied odds against settlement. With a verdict on liability expected imminently, the case has advanced far beyond the pre-trial window where Elon Musk briefly floated a settlement offer to OpenAI president Greg Brockman in late April. The high-stakes dispute centers on whether OpenAI’s shift to a for-profit structure with Microsoft investment breached its original nonprofit mission for safe artificial intelligence development, exposing deep personal and competitive tensions between the two AI leaders. Upcoming judge rulings on remedies could further lock in the outcome, reducing room for last-minute private resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$10,794 Vol.
$10,794 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$10,794 Vol.
$10,794 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing Musk v. Altman trial in federal court, now at the jury deliberation stage after closing arguments concluded on May 14, has driven the 71% market-implied odds against settlement. With a verdict on liability expected imminently, the case has advanced far beyond the pre-trial window where Elon Musk briefly floated a settlement offer to OpenAI president Greg Brockman in late April. The high-stakes dispute centers on whether OpenAI’s shift to a for-profit structure with Microsoft investment breached its original nonprofit mission for safe artificial intelligence development, exposing deep personal and competitive tensions between the two AI leaders. Upcoming judge rulings on remedies could further lock in the outcome, reducing room for last-minute private resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Volume
$10,794End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing Musk v. Altman trial in federal court, now at the jury deliberation stage after closing arguments concluded on May 14, has driven the 71% market-implied odds against settlement. With a verdict on liability expected imminently, the case has advanced far beyond the pre-trial window where Elon Musk briefly floated a settlement offer to OpenAI president Greg Brockman in late April. The high-stakes dispute centers on whether OpenAI’s shift to a for-profit structure with Microsoft investment breached its original nonprofit mission for safe artificial intelligence development, exposing deep personal and competitive tensions between the two AI leaders. Upcoming judge rulings on remedies could further lock in the outcome, reducing room for last-minute private resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,794End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing Musk v. Altman trial in federal court, now at the jury deliberation stage after closing arguments concluded on May 14, has driven the 71% market-implied odds against settlement. With a verdict on liability expected imminently, the case has advanced far beyond the pre-trial window where Elon Musk briefly floated a settlement offer to OpenAI president Greg Brockman in late April. The high-stakes dispute centers on whether OpenAI’s shift to a for-profit structure with Microsoft investment breached its original nonprofit mission for safe artificial intelligence development, exposing deep personal and competitive tensions between the two AI leaders. Upcoming judge rulings on remedies could further lock in the outcome, reducing room for last-minute private resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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