**The 94.4% implied probability for a scheduled Israeli election reflects the confirmed October 27, 2026, date and the absence of any successful moves to alter the timeline.** Israel's 25th Knesset completed its full four-year term—the first since 1988—after dissolving on July 17, 2026, following earlier coalition-backed legislation that briefly raised the prospect of an earlier vote. Coalition leaders and the Knesset legal adviser explicitly rejected advancing the date, locking in the latest date permitted by law. Procedural milestones have since advanced without disruption: candidate lists were submitted by the September 8 deadline, surplus-vote agreements are due in mid-October, and overseas voting begins October 20. Standard Central Elections Committee reviews of party eligibility petitions remain routine and have not threatened the overall schedule. With the campaign underway and no legislative or security developments altering the fixed timetable, trader consensus aligns with the established electoral calendar.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated95% chance
$10,276 Vol.
$10,276 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
95% chance
$10,276 Vol.
$10,276 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if general voting in the election for the 26th Knesset takes place in Israel on October 27, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The 94.4% implied probability for a scheduled Israeli election reflects the confirmed October 27, 2026, date and the absence of any successful moves to alter the timeline.** Israel's 25th Knesset completed its full four-year term—the first since 1988—after dissolving on July 17, 2026, following earlier coalition-backed legislation that briefly raised the prospect of an earlier vote. Coalition leaders and the Knesset legal adviser explicitly rejected advancing the date, locking in the latest date permitted by law.
Procedural milestones have since advanced without disruption: candidate lists were submitted by the September 8 deadline, surplus-vote agreements are due in mid-October, and overseas voting begins October 20. Standard Central Elections Committee reviews of party eligibility petitions remain routine and have not threatened the overall schedule. With the campaign underway and no legislative or security developments altering the fixed timetable, trader consensus aligns with the established electoral calendar.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if general voting in the election for the 26th Knesset takes place in Israel on October 27, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volume
$10,276End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if general voting in the election for the 26th Knesset takes place in Israel on October 27, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The 94.4% implied probability for a scheduled Israeli election reflects the confirmed October 27, 2026, date and the absence of any successful moves to alter the timeline.** Israel's 25th Knesset completed its full four-year term—the first since 1988—after dissolving on July 17, 2026, following earlier coalition-backed legislation that briefly raised the prospect of an earlier vote. Coalition leaders and the Knesset legal adviser explicitly rejected advancing the date, locking in the latest date permitted by law.
Procedural milestones have since advanced without disruption: candidate lists were submitted by the September 8 deadline, surplus-vote agreements are due in mid-October, and overseas voting begins October 20. Standard Central Elections Committee reviews of party eligibility petitions remain routine and have not threatened the overall schedule. With the campaign underway and no legislative or security developments altering the fixed timetable, trader consensus aligns with the established electoral calendar.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if general voting in the election for the 26th Knesset takes place in Israel on October 27, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,276End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The 94.4% implied probability for a scheduled Israeli election reflects the confirmed October 27, 2026, date and the absence of any successful moves to alter the timeline.** Israel's 25th Knesset completed its full four-year term—the first since 1988—after dissolving on July 17, 2026, following earlier coalition-backed legislation that briefly raised the prospect of an earlier vote. Coalition leaders and the Knesset legal adviser explicitly rejected advancing the date, locking in the latest date permitted by law. Procedural milestones have since advanced without disruption: candidate lists were submitted by the September 8 deadline, surplus-vote agreements are due in mid-October, and overseas voting begins October 20. Standard Central Elections Committee reviews of party eligibility petitions remain routine and have not threatened the overall schedule. With the campaign underway and no legislative or security developments altering the fixed timetable, trader consensus aligns with the established electoral calendar.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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