Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and military through ongoing anti-corruption campaigns, loyal appointments such as Cai Qi’s expanded roles, and emphasis on national security and technological self-reliance. Active diplomacy, including multiple foreign leader meetings in 2026 and preparations for the 2027 Party Congress, reinforce expectations of another term extending his leadership. Trader consensus at 95% for “No” reflects the absence of credible challenges or succession signals ahead of that congress. Even at such elevated implied probability, an abrupt health event, elite factional realignment, or acute economic or geopolitical crisis could still trigger removal before the end of 2026.