Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated as the leading challenger for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, according to recent polling from Quaest, Datafolha, and MDA showing him at 28–40% behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. His late-July Liberal Party nomination and endorsement by ineligible former president Jair Bolsonaro have unified right-leaning voters, while the broader opposition field remains fragmented among candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema. Lula maintains a first-round edge near 40%, but the right’s preference for a single standard-bearer has limited vote splitting. No late-breaking events have altered this positioning in the past month.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFlávio Bolsonaro 84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.6%
Renan Santos 6.3%
Ronaldo Caiado 1.1%
$4,606,482 Vol.
$4,606,482 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
8%
Renan Santos
6%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.6%
Renan Santos 6.3%
Ronaldo Caiado 1.1%
$4,606,482 Vol.
$4,606,482 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
$251,942 Vol.
84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$226,914 Vol.
8%
Renan Santos
$1,100,413 Vol.
6%
Ronaldo Caiado
$353,622 Vol.
1%
Romeu Zema
$299,270 Vol.
<1%
Fernando Haddad
$692,351 Vol.
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$133,214 Vol.
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$128,809 Vol.
<1%
Camilo Santana
$104,312 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$101,410 Vol.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$62,257 Vol.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$197,416 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$673,156 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$154,157 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$71,116 Vol.
<1%
Helder Barbalho
$20,972 Vol.
<1%
Tereza Cristina
$35,475 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated as the leading challenger for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, according to recent polling from Quaest, Datafolha, and MDA showing him at 28–40% behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. His late-July Liberal Party nomination and endorsement by ineligible former president Jair Bolsonaro have unified right-leaning voters, while the broader opposition field remains fragmented among candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema. Lula maintains a first-round edge near 40%, but the right’s preference for a single standard-bearer has limited vote splitting. No late-breaking events have altered this positioning in the past month.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$4,606,482Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated as the leading challenger for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, according to recent polling from Quaest, Datafolha, and MDA showing him at 28–40% behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. His late-July Liberal Party nomination and endorsement by ineligible former president Jair Bolsonaro have unified right-leaning voters, while the broader opposition field remains fragmented among candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema. Lula maintains a first-round edge near 40%, but the right’s preference for a single standard-bearer has limited vote splitting. No late-breaking events have altered this positioning in the past month.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$4,606,482Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated as the leading challenger for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, according to recent polling from Quaest, Datafolha, and MDA showing him at 28–40% behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. His late-July Liberal Party nomination and endorsement by ineligible former president Jair Bolsonaro have unified right-leaning voters, while the broader opposition field remains fragmented among candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema. Lula maintains a first-round edge near 40%, but the right’s preference for a single standard-bearer has limited vote splitting. No late-breaking events have altered this positioning in the past month.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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