Recent Météo-France and ensemble model runs position 26 °C as the most likely maximum for Paris on June 14 under building high pressure, mostly sunny skies, and light northwesterly flow that supports modest boundary-layer mixing and strong insolation. Recent warming has pushed daytime highs several degrees above seasonal normals, yet small spreads in 850 hPa temperatures and minor cloud variability keep the distribution tightly clustered around 25–26 °C. These conditions explain the market’s heavy concentration on those two outcomes, with implied probabilities reflecting trader consensus on official station readings rather than outlier model solutions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Paris on June 14?
26°C 57%
25°C 39%
27°C 4.2%
29°C <1%
$65,432 Vol.
$65,432 Vol.
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
39%
26°C
57%
27°C
4%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 57%
25°C 39%
27°C 4.2%
29°C <1%
$65,432 Vol.
$65,432 Vol.
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
39%
26°C
57%
27°C
4%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jun 12, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Météo-France and ensemble model runs position 26 °C as the most likely maximum for Paris on June 14 under building high pressure, mostly sunny skies, and light northwesterly flow that supports modest boundary-layer mixing and strong insolation. Recent warming has pushed daytime highs several degrees above seasonal normals, yet small spreads in 850 hPa temperatures and minor cloud variability keep the distribution tightly clustered around 25–26 °C. These conditions explain the market’s heavy concentration on those two outcomes, with implied probabilities reflecting trader consensus on official station readings rather than outlier model solutions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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