Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44% implied probability for São Paulo's highest temperature reaching 26°C today, driven by the latest hourly forecasts from meteorological services like INMET and CustomWeather, which project peak heating to 26°C (78°F) around 2-3 p.m. local time amid light northerly winds (1-6 mph) and partial clearing from morning overcast conditions to partly cloudy skies, with 0% precipitation risk. Current morning observations near 16°C support this trajectory following recent cold air retreat, though model ensembles like GFS show slight spread between 25-27°C due to cloud cover variability and urban heat effects at Guarulhos International Airport. Updated INMET guidance late yesterday reinforced this positioning, with real-time airport readings through afternoon poised to refine outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 14?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 14?
26°C 48%
27°C 28%
25°C 20%
28°C 7.8%
$18,957 Vol.
$18,957 Vol.
21°C or below
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
7%
25°C
20%
26°C
48%
27°C
28%
28°C
8%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 48%
27°C 28%
25°C 20%
28°C 7.8%
$18,957 Vol.
$18,957 Vol.
21°C or below
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
7%
25°C
20%
26°C
48%
27°C
28%
28°C
8%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44% implied probability for São Paulo's highest temperature reaching 26°C today, driven by the latest hourly forecasts from meteorological services like INMET and CustomWeather, which project peak heating to 26°C (78°F) around 2-3 p.m. local time amid light northerly winds (1-6 mph) and partial clearing from morning overcast conditions to partly cloudy skies, with 0% precipitation risk. Current morning observations near 16°C support this trajectory following recent cold air retreat, though model ensembles like GFS show slight spread between 25-27°C due to cloud cover variability and urban heat effects at Guarulhos International Airport. Updated INMET guidance late yesterday reinforced this positioning, with real-time airport readings through afternoon poised to refine outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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