Traders assign a 60.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 and 34.5% to exactly one, reflecting the low historical frequency of such events documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta and a plume exceeding 10 km, criteria met only sporadically even among the dozens of ongoing eruptions tracked worldwide this year. Current activity remains dominated by smaller explosive or effusive events at volcanoes such as Kīlauea, Piton de la Fournaise, and Semeru, with no confirmed VEI ≥4 episodes through mid-May. This quiet baseline aligns with the long-term average of fewer than one large explosive eruption per year, though new seismic or gas data from monitoring networks could still shift odds if a major stratovolcano enters a climactic phase before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de grandes éruptions volcaniques (VEI ≥4) en 2026 ?
Combien de grandes éruptions volcaniques (VEI ≥4) en 2026 ?
0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 Vol.
$1,079,004 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0
61%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 Vol.
$1,079,004 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0
$477,398 Vol.
61%
1
$260,191 Vol.
35%
2
$32,241 Vol.
4%
3
$26,240 Vol.
1%
4
$24,441 Vol.
<1%
5+
$258,493 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Traders assign a 60.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 and 34.5% to exactly one, reflecting the low historical frequency of such events documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta and a plume exceeding 10 km, criteria met only sporadically even among the dozens of ongoing eruptions tracked worldwide this year. Current activity remains dominated by smaller explosive or effusive events at volcanoes such as Kīlauea, Piton de la Fournaise, and Semeru, with no confirmed VEI ≥4 episodes through mid-May. This quiet baseline aligns with the long-term average of fewer than one large explosive eruption per year, though new seismic or gas data from monitoring networks could still shift odds if a major stratovolcano enters a climactic phase before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,079,004Date de fin
31 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Traders assign a 60.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 and 34.5% to exactly one, reflecting the low historical frequency of such events documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta and a plume exceeding 10 km, criteria met only sporadically even among the dozens of ongoing eruptions tracked worldwide this year. Current activity remains dominated by smaller explosive or effusive events at volcanoes such as Kīlauea, Piton de la Fournaise, and Semeru, with no confirmed VEI ≥4 episodes through mid-May. This quiet baseline aligns with the long-term average of fewer than one large explosive eruption per year, though new seismic or gas data from monitoring networks could still shift odds if a major stratovolcano enters a climactic phase before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,079,004Date de fin
31 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign a 60.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 and 34.5% to exactly one, reflecting the low historical frequency of such events documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta and a plume exceeding 10 km, criteria met only sporadically even among the dozens of ongoing eruptions tracked worldwide this year. Current activity remains dominated by smaller explosive or effusive events at volcanoes such as Kīlauea, Piton de la Fournaise, and Semeru, with no confirmed VEI ≥4 episodes through mid-May. This quiet baseline aligns with the long-term average of fewer than one large explosive eruption per year, though new seismic or gas data from monitoring networks could still shift odds if a major stratovolcano enters a climactic phase before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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