Ongoing military tensions stemming from the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets continue to shape assessments of Israeli airspace policy. Partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport for limited domestic and approved carriers have occurred since March, yet wartime restrictions and foreign airline suspensions persist amid EASA advisories and security reviews. Recent announcements by European carriers, including Lufthansa’s planned June resumption following safety assessments, reflect easing immediate escalation risks and have moderated trader views on a full closure by late May. Diplomatic signals, missile threat monitoring, and official aviation authority decisions within the coming weeks remain key variables that could alter the probability of renewed major shutdowns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$887,478 Vol.
30 juin 2026
May 31
31%
30 juin
48%
$887,478 Vol.
May 31
$383,335 Vol.
31%
30 juin
$8,957 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military tensions stemming from the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets continue to shape assessments of Israeli airspace policy. Partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport for limited domestic and approved carriers have occurred since March, yet wartime restrictions and foreign airline suspensions persist amid EASA advisories and security reviews. Recent announcements by European carriers, including Lufthansa’s planned June resumption following safety assessments, reflect easing immediate escalation risks and have moderated trader views on a full closure by late May. Diplomatic signals, missile threat monitoring, and official aviation authority decisions within the coming weeks remain key variables that could alter the probability of renewed major shutdowns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Volume
$887,478Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military tensions stemming from the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets continue to shape assessments of Israeli airspace policy. Partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport for limited domestic and approved carriers have occurred since March, yet wartime restrictions and foreign airline suspensions persist amid EASA advisories and security reviews. Recent announcements by European carriers, including Lufthansa’s planned June resumption following safety assessments, reflect easing immediate escalation risks and have moderated trader views on a full closure by late May. Diplomatic signals, missile threat monitoring, and official aviation authority decisions within the coming weeks remain key variables that could alter the probability of renewed major shutdowns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$887,478Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military tensions stemming from the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets continue to shape assessments of Israeli airspace policy. Partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport for limited domestic and approved carriers have occurred since March, yet wartime restrictions and foreign airline suspensions persist amid EASA advisories and security reviews. Recent announcements by European carriers, including Lufthansa’s planned June resumption following safety assessments, reflect easing immediate escalation risks and have moderated trader views on a full closure by late May. Diplomatic signals, missile threat monitoring, and official aviation authority decisions within the coming weeks remain key variables that could alter the probability of renewed major shutdowns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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