Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 90.5% probability of Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature reaching 56°F or higher on May 16, backed by consistent National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peaks in the low-to-mid 60s under a strengthening high-pressure ridge aloft. This positioning follows a rebound from an early-week cool spell with highs in the 40s-50s, as southerly winds and clear skies now enable robust diurnal heating from morning lows near 50°F, aligning with May 16 climatological normals of 70.6°F. Realistic challenges include an unforecast weak cold front or enhanced lake breeze from Lake Michigan introducing clouds and northerly shear to cap peaks below 56°F, though upper-air analyses show low risk. Monitor NWS hourly updates and afternoon soundings for shifts ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Chicago on May 16?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 16?
56°F or higher 99.4%
37°F or below <1%
42-43°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
BARU
BARU
May 16, 2026
37°F or below
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56°F or higher
99%
56°F or higher 99.4%
37°F or below <1%
42-43°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
BARU
BARU
May 16, 2026
37°F or below
$564 Vol.
<1%
38-39°F
$420 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$610 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$510 Vol.
<1%
44-45°F
$411 Vol.
<1%
46-47°F
$411 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$410 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$310 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$310 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$216 Vol.
<1%
56°F or higher
$343 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 90.5% probability of Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature reaching 56°F or higher on May 16, backed by consistent National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peaks in the low-to-mid 60s under a strengthening high-pressure ridge aloft. This positioning follows a rebound from an early-week cool spell with highs in the 40s-50s, as southerly winds and clear skies now enable robust diurnal heating from morning lows near 50°F, aligning with May 16 climatological normals of 70.6°F. Realistic challenges include an unforecast weak cold front or enhanced lake breeze from Lake Michigan introducing clouds and northerly shear to cap peaks below 56°F, though upper-air analyses show low risk. Monitor NWS hourly updates and afternoon soundings for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$4,514Tanggal Berakhir
May 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 90.5% probability of Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature reaching 56°F or higher on May 16, backed by consistent National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peaks in the low-to-mid 60s under a strengthening high-pressure ridge aloft. This positioning follows a rebound from an early-week cool spell with highs in the 40s-50s, as southerly winds and clear skies now enable robust diurnal heating from morning lows near 50°F, aligning with May 16 climatological normals of 70.6°F. Realistic challenges include an unforecast weak cold front or enhanced lake breeze from Lake Michigan introducing clouds and northerly shear to cap peaks below 56°F, though upper-air analyses show low risk. Monitor NWS hourly updates and afternoon soundings for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,514Tanggal Berakhir
May 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 90.5% probability of Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature reaching 56°F or higher on May 16, backed by consistent National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peaks in the low-to-mid 60s under a strengthening high-pressure ridge aloft. This positioning follows a rebound from an early-week cool spell with highs in the 40s-50s, as southerly winds and clear skies now enable robust diurnal heating from morning lows near 50°F, aligning with May 16 climatological normals of 70.6°F. Realistic challenges include an unforecast weak cold front or enhanced lake breeze from Lake Michigan introducing clouds and northerly shear to cap peaks below 56°F, though upper-air analyses show low risk. Monitor NWS hourly updates and afternoon soundings for shifts ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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