Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Cape Town's highest temperature reaching exactly 18°C on May 13, 2026, at Cape Town International Airport, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast capping the daily maximum at 18°C amid persistent cloudy conditions, 100% rain probability, and 85 mm expected precipitation. Post-cold frontal dynamics following disruptive heavy rainfall and gale-force winds on May 11-12 have entrenched cool, overcast weather, with METAR observations at the airport reporting current temperatures around 17°C, high humidity near 94%, and low pressure (1009 hPa) limiting solar heating. This aligns with model consensus showing minimal diurnal warming potential in autumnal southern hemisphere patterns. Realistic challenges include an improbable prolonged clearing allowing 1-2°C extra insolation before evening, though SAWS end-of-day observations will confirm resolution amid negligible upside risk.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Cape Town on May 13?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on May 13?
18°C 100.0%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$51,750 Vol.
$51,750 Vol.
13 mag 2026
18°C
100%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
18°C 100.0%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$51,750 Vol.
$51,750 Vol.
13 mag 2026
18°C
$4,601 Vol.
100%
19°C
$5,151 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,966 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,296 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$3,586 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Cape Town's highest temperature reaching exactly 18°C on May 13, 2026, at Cape Town International Airport, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast capping the daily maximum at 18°C amid persistent cloudy conditions, 100% rain probability, and 85 mm expected precipitation. Post-cold frontal dynamics following disruptive heavy rainfall and gale-force winds on May 11-12 have entrenched cool, overcast weather, with METAR observations at the airport reporting current temperatures around 17°C, high humidity near 94%, and low pressure (1009 hPa) limiting solar heating. This aligns with model consensus showing minimal diurnal warming potential in autumnal southern hemisphere patterns. Realistic challenges include an improbable prolonged clearing allowing 1-2°C extra insolation before evening, though SAWS end-of-day observations will confirm resolution amid negligible upside risk.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 11, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Volume
$51,750Data di fine
13 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 11, 2026, 12:41 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Cape Town's highest temperature reaching exactly 18°C on May 13, 2026, at Cape Town International Airport, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast capping the daily maximum at 18°C amid persistent cloudy conditions, 100% rain probability, and 85 mm expected precipitation. Post-cold frontal dynamics following disruptive heavy rainfall and gale-force winds on May 11-12 have entrenched cool, overcast weather, with METAR observations at the airport reporting current temperatures around 17°C, high humidity near 94%, and low pressure (1009 hPa) limiting solar heating. This aligns with model consensus showing minimal diurnal warming potential in autumnal southern hemisphere patterns. Realistic challenges include an improbable prolonged clearing allowing 1-2°C extra insolation before evening, though SAWS end-of-day observations will confirm resolution amid negligible upside risk.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$51,750Data di fine
13 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 11, 2026, 12:41 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Cape Town's highest temperature reaching exactly 18°C on May 13, 2026, at Cape Town International Airport, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast capping the daily maximum at 18°C amid persistent cloudy conditions, 100% rain probability, and 85 mm expected precipitation. Post-cold frontal dynamics following disruptive heavy rainfall and gale-force winds on May 11-12 have entrenched cool, overcast weather, with METAR observations at the airport reporting current temperatures around 17°C, high humidity near 94%, and low pressure (1009 hPa) limiting solar heating. This aligns with model consensus showing minimal diurnal warming potential in autumnal southern hemisphere patterns. Realistic challenges include an improbable prolonged clearing allowing 1-2°C extra insolation before evening, though SAWS end-of-day observations will confirm resolution amid negligible upside risk.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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