Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 15°C high in Istanbul on May 14 at 99.9% implied probability, driven by NOAA-verified observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) registering the day's peak at 15°C amid persistent cloud cover, light showers, and a cool northerly airflow. This aligns with pre-event consensus from ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting 15-17°C highs following a sharp cooldown from 23-25°C peaks on May 12-13, as forecasted by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM). Current METAR reports show temperatures hovering at 13°C with high humidity and rain, minimizing further warming potential as evening sets in. Realistic challenges—abrupt clearing skies allowing solar heating or measurement revisions—remain improbable given sinking barometric trends and climatological May norms around 20°C overshadowed by transient synoptic cooling.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 14?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 14?
15°C 99.8%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$52,372 Vol.
$52,372 Vol.
14 mag 2026
15°C
100%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 99.8%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$52,372 Vol.
$52,372 Vol.
14 mag 2026
15°C
$6,556 Vol.
100%
16°C
$3,899 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$3,718 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$5,099 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$10,135 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 15°C high in Istanbul on May 14 at 99.9% implied probability, driven by NOAA-verified observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) registering the day's peak at 15°C amid persistent cloud cover, light showers, and a cool northerly airflow. This aligns with pre-event consensus from ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting 15-17°C highs following a sharp cooldown from 23-25°C peaks on May 12-13, as forecasted by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM). Current METAR reports show temperatures hovering at 13°C with high humidity and rain, minimizing further warming potential as evening sets in. Realistic challenges—abrupt clearing skies allowing solar heating or measurement revisions—remain improbable given sinking barometric trends and climatological May norms around 20°C overshadowed by transient synoptic cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 12, 2026, 12:54 AM ET
Volume
$52,372Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 12:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 15°C high in Istanbul on May 14 at 99.9% implied probability, driven by NOAA-verified observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) registering the day's peak at 15°C amid persistent cloud cover, light showers, and a cool northerly airflow. This aligns with pre-event consensus from ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting 15-17°C highs following a sharp cooldown from 23-25°C peaks on May 12-13, as forecasted by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM). Current METAR reports show temperatures hovering at 13°C with high humidity and rain, minimizing further warming potential as evening sets in. Realistic challenges—abrupt clearing skies allowing solar heating or measurement revisions—remain improbable given sinking barometric trends and climatological May norms around 20°C overshadowed by transient synoptic cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$52,372Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 12:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 15°C high in Istanbul on May 14 at 99.9% implied probability, driven by NOAA-verified observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) registering the day's peak at 15°C amid persistent cloud cover, light showers, and a cool northerly airflow. This aligns with pre-event consensus from ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting 15-17°C highs following a sharp cooldown from 23-25°C peaks on May 12-13, as forecasted by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM). Current METAR reports show temperatures hovering at 13°C with high humidity and rain, minimizing further warming potential as evening sets in. Realistic challenges—abrupt clearing skies allowing solar heating or measurement revisions—remain improbable given sinking barometric trends and climatological May norms around 20°C overshadowed by transient synoptic cooling.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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