Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin forecast model agreement for Shanghai's May 16 minimum temperature, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around 19°C amid partly cloudy overnight conditions and mild southerly winds that limit radiative cooling. Leading outcomes at 33.5% for 19°C, 32.5% for 18°C, and 30% for 20°C capture this uncertainty, as slight variations in cloud cover evolution or urban heat island amplification from Shanghai Pudong's dense surroundings could tip the official reading by 1–2°C. High humidity near 80% further moderates drops below 18°C, diverging from May climatological lows of 16–17°C. Watch evening soundings and dawn observations for shifts ahead of resolution based on China Meteorological Administration data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Shanghai il 16 maggio?
La temperatura più bassa di Shanghai il 16 maggio?
19°C 37%
20°C 37%
18°C 22%
17°C 2.6%
$13,438 Vol.
$13,438 Vol.
16 mag 2026
14°C o inferiore
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
22%
19°C
40%
20°C
49%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C o superiore
<1%
19°C 37%
20°C 37%
18°C 22%
17°C 2.6%
$13,438 Vol.
$13,438 Vol.
16 mag 2026
14°C o inferiore
$2,880 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,800 Vol.
1%
16°C
$907 Vol.
1%
17°C
$1,632 Vol.
3%
18°C
$262 Vol.
22%
19°C
$151 Vol.
40%
20°C
$163 Vol.
49%
21°C
$108 Vol.
1%
22°C
$358 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$968 Vol.
<1%
24°C o superiore
$3,209 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin forecast model agreement for Shanghai's May 16 minimum temperature, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around 19°C amid partly cloudy overnight conditions and mild southerly winds that limit radiative cooling. Leading outcomes at 33.5% for 19°C, 32.5% for 18°C, and 30% for 20°C capture this uncertainty, as slight variations in cloud cover evolution or urban heat island amplification from Shanghai Pudong's dense surroundings could tip the official reading by 1–2°C. High humidity near 80% further moderates drops below 18°C, diverging from May climatological lows of 16–17°C. Watch evening soundings and dawn observations for shifts ahead of resolution based on China Meteorological Administration data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$13,438Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin forecast model agreement for Shanghai's May 16 minimum temperature, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around 19°C amid partly cloudy overnight conditions and mild southerly winds that limit radiative cooling. Leading outcomes at 33.5% for 19°C, 32.5% for 18°C, and 30% for 20°C capture this uncertainty, as slight variations in cloud cover evolution or urban heat island amplification from Shanghai Pudong's dense surroundings could tip the official reading by 1–2°C. High humidity near 80% further moderates drops below 18°C, diverging from May climatological lows of 16–17°C. Watch evening soundings and dawn observations for shifts ahead of resolution based on China Meteorological Administration data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,438Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin forecast model agreement for Shanghai's May 16 minimum temperature, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around 19°C amid partly cloudy overnight conditions and mild southerly winds that limit radiative cooling. Leading outcomes at 33.5% for 19°C, 32.5% for 18°C, and 30% for 20°C capture this uncertainty, as slight variations in cloud cover evolution or urban heat island amplification from Shanghai Pudong's dense surroundings could tip the official reading by 1–2°C. High humidity near 80% further moderates drops below 18°C, diverging from May climatological lows of 16–17°C. Watch evening soundings and dawn observations for shifts ahead of resolution based on China Meteorological Administration data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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