Ongoing Iranian restrictions on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, imposed after the February 2026 escalation involving U.S. and Israeli operations, continue to suppress vessel transits. Recent data from maritime trackers show daily crossings averaging in the single digits or low teens through mid-May, representing roughly 5-10% of pre-conflict levels amid Iranian vessel vetting, proposed transit fees, and heightened security measures. U.S. efforts to escort select neutral ships have yielded limited results so far, while over 1,500 vessels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. These sustained barriers explain trader consensus favoring very low average daily transits by month-end, with only modest upticks possible if de-escalation signals emerge before the resolution window closes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.4%
60+ 3.3%
$320,451 Vol.
$320,451 Vol.
2026/05/31
0-10
87%
10-20
6%
20-40
3%
40-60
2%
60+
3%
0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.4%
60+ 3.3%
$320,451 Vol.
$320,451 Vol.
2026/05/31
0-10
$170,835 Vol.
87%
10-20
$42,858 Vol.
6%
20-40
$34,031 Vol.
3%
40-60
$27,429 Vol.
2%
60+
$45,298 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Iranian restrictions on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, imposed after the February 2026 escalation involving U.S. and Israeli operations, continue to suppress vessel transits. Recent data from maritime trackers show daily crossings averaging in the single digits or low teens through mid-May, representing roughly 5-10% of pre-conflict levels amid Iranian vessel vetting, proposed transit fees, and heightened security measures. U.S. efforts to escort select neutral ships have yielded limited results so far, while over 1,500 vessels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. These sustained barriers explain trader consensus favoring very low average daily transits by month-end, with only modest upticks possible if de-escalation signals emerge before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
音量
$320,451終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Iranian restrictions on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, imposed after the February 2026 escalation involving U.S. and Israeli operations, continue to suppress vessel transits. Recent data from maritime trackers show daily crossings averaging in the single digits or low teens through mid-May, representing roughly 5-10% of pre-conflict levels amid Iranian vessel vetting, proposed transit fees, and heightened security measures. U.S. efforts to escort select neutral ships have yielded limited results so far, while over 1,500 vessels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. These sustained barriers explain trader consensus favoring very low average daily transits by month-end, with only modest upticks possible if de-escalation signals emerge before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$320,451終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Iranian restrictions on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, imposed after the February 2026 escalation involving U.S. and Israeli operations, continue to suppress vessel transits. Recent data from maritime trackers show daily crossings averaging in the single digits or low teens through mid-May, representing roughly 5-10% of pre-conflict levels amid Iranian vessel vetting, proposed transit fees, and heightened security measures. U.S. efforts to escort select neutral ships have yielded limited results so far, while over 1,500 vessels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. These sustained barriers explain trader consensus favoring very low average daily transits by month-end, with only modest upticks possible if de-escalation signals emerge before the resolution window closes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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