Recent numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate Beijing’s highest temperature on May 17 will most likely reach 19–20 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. These forecasts, which incorporate surface observations, upper-air data, and ensemble spreads, place the market-implied probabilities at 43% for 19 °C and 32% for 20 °C because historical analogs and current atmospheric conditions support modest daytime warming without significant frontal passages or strong insolation. Traders weigh the inherent uncertainty in short-range model guidance, where small shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge the peak by one degree, against the limited time remaining before official resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日の北京の最高気温は?
19°C 42%
20°C 32%
18°C 17.2%
21°C 10%
$28,555 Vol.
$28,555 Vol.
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
17%
19°C
42%
20°C
32%
21°C
10%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
<1%
19°C 42%
20°C 32%
18°C 17.2%
21°C 10%
$28,555 Vol.
$28,555 Vol.
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
17%
19°C
42%
20°C
32%
21°C
10%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate Beijing’s highest temperature on May 17 will most likely reach 19–20 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. These forecasts, which incorporate surface observations, upper-air data, and ensemble spreads, place the market-implied probabilities at 43% for 19 °C and 32% for 20 °C because historical analogs and current atmospheric conditions support modest daytime warming without significant frontal passages or strong insolation. Traders weigh the inherent uncertainty in short-range model guidance, where small shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge the peak by one degree, against the limited time remaining before official resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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