The Indian Meteorological Department’s latest forecast for Lucknow projects a maximum temperature of 41°C on May 17 under mainly clear skies, directly anchoring the market’s 84.5% implied probability for 41°C or below. Recent observations show suppressed highs—several degrees below the seasonal 40–43°C climatological baseline—due to lingering moisture and thunderstorm activity earlier in May that reduced daytime heating. With minimal model spread expected for this short-range outlook, traders assign only modest chances to 42–43°C outcomes if solar insolation strengthens under drier air. Final official readings from the Lucknow observatory will resolve the market, and any last-minute adjustments in the IMD’s daily update could shift probabilities before sunset tomorrow.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のラクナウの最高気温は?
41°C or below 85%
42°C 7%
43°C 3.4%
44°C 1.1%
$11,196 Vol.
$11,196 Vol.
41°C or below
85%
42°C
7%
43°C
3%
44°C
1%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
41°C or below 85%
42°C 7%
43°C 3.4%
44°C 1.1%
$11,196 Vol.
$11,196 Vol.
41°C or below
85%
42°C
7%
43°C
3%
44°C
1%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The Indian Meteorological Department’s latest forecast for Lucknow projects a maximum temperature of 41°C on May 17 under mainly clear skies, directly anchoring the market’s 84.5% implied probability for 41°C or below. Recent observations show suppressed highs—several degrees below the seasonal 40–43°C climatological baseline—due to lingering moisture and thunderstorm activity earlier in May that reduced daytime heating. With minimal model spread expected for this short-range outlook, traders assign only modest chances to 42–43°C outcomes if solar insolation strengthens under drier air. Final official readings from the Lucknow observatory will resolve the market, and any last-minute adjustments in the IMD’s daily update could shift probabilities before sunset tomorrow.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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