PAGASA forecasts place Manila's June 15 maximum near 32–34°C amid the southwest monsoon's onset, with 40% rain chance and high humidity that favors afternoon convection. These conditions often cap peaks through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling from scattered showers, supporting the market's tight clustering around 32–33°C. Model consensus and historical June baselines near 31–32°C explain why 34°C commands lower implied odds, while drier spells or delayed rainfall could briefly allow 34°C or higher. Updated short-range guidance and satellite monitoring of convective activity over the next 24 hours will refine the exact threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日6月15日のマニラの最高気温は?
33°C 38%
32℃ 28%
34℃ 20%
31°C 3.8%
28°C以下
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
4%
32℃
28%
33°C
38%
34℃
20%
35℃
3%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38℃以上
<1%
33°C 38%
32℃ 28%
34℃ 20%
31°C 3.8%
28°C以下
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
4%
32℃
28%
33°C
38%
34℃
20%
35℃
3%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38℃以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Jun 13, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
PAGASA forecasts place Manila's June 15 maximum near 32–34°C amid the southwest monsoon's onset, with 40% rain chance and high humidity that favors afternoon convection. These conditions often cap peaks through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling from scattered showers, supporting the market's tight clustering around 32–33°C. Model consensus and historical June baselines near 31–32°C explain why 34°C commands lower implied odds, while drier spells or delayed rainfall could briefly allow 34°C or higher. Updated short-range guidance and satellite monitoring of convective activity over the next 24 hours will refine the exact threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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