The dominant 99.5% market-implied probability for a 21°C daily maximum in Qingdao on May 16 reflects tight consensus across the latest China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS ensemble runs, which project a high of exactly 21°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate southerly flow, and typical coastal marine moderation. Recent observations from May 15, when the high reached only 16°C amid persistent cloud cover and sea breezes, have reinforced this downward adjustment from earlier warmer guidance. Historical mid-May climatology for the region centers near 20–22°C, providing additional context for the narrow range. The outcome could shift only if afternoon insolation increases sharply due to unexpected cloud dissipation or if local station measurements deviate from model consensus before official resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 16?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 16?
21°C 99.4%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
30°C or higher <1%
$29,331 Vol.
$29,331 Vol.
2026/05/16
21°C
99%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
21°C 99.4%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
30°C or higher <1%
$29,331 Vol.
$29,331 Vol.
2026/05/16
21°C
$9,131 Vol.
99%
22°C
$3,219 Vol.
1%
23°C
$2,204 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,285 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,972 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,845 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,040 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$956 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,469 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$1,325 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The dominant 99.5% market-implied probability for a 21°C daily maximum in Qingdao on May 16 reflects tight consensus across the latest China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS ensemble runs, which project a high of exactly 21°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate southerly flow, and typical coastal marine moderation. Recent observations from May 15, when the high reached only 16°C amid persistent cloud cover and sea breezes, have reinforced this downward adjustment from earlier warmer guidance. Historical mid-May climatology for the region centers near 20–22°C, providing additional context for the narrow range. The outcome could shift only if afternoon insolation increases sharply due to unexpected cloud dissipation or if local station measurements deviate from model consensus before official resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$29,331終了日
2026/05/16マーケット開始日
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The dominant 99.5% market-implied probability for a 21°C daily maximum in Qingdao on May 16 reflects tight consensus across the latest China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS ensemble runs, which project a high of exactly 21°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate southerly flow, and typical coastal marine moderation. Recent observations from May 15, when the high reached only 16°C amid persistent cloud cover and sea breezes, have reinforced this downward adjustment from earlier warmer guidance. Historical mid-May climatology for the region centers near 20–22°C, providing additional context for the narrow range. The outcome could shift only if afternoon insolation increases sharply due to unexpected cloud dissipation or if local station measurements deviate from model consensus before official resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$29,331終了日
2026/05/16マーケット開始日
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETThe dominant 99.5% market-implied probability for a 21°C daily maximum in Qingdao on May 16 reflects tight consensus across the latest China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS ensemble runs, which project a high of exactly 21°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate southerly flow, and typical coastal marine moderation. Recent observations from May 15, when the high reached only 16°C amid persistent cloud cover and sea breezes, have reinforced this downward adjustment from earlier warmer guidance. Historical mid-May climatology for the region centers near 20–22°C, providing additional context for the narrow range. The outcome could shift only if afternoon insolation increases sharply due to unexpected cloud dissipation or if local station measurements deviate from model consensus before official resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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