Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 after the Assembly of Experts elected him supreme leader in early March 2026, shortly following the assassination of his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the opening phase of the 2026 Iran war. The selection, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reinforced hardline continuity in an opaque process that activated Article 111 of the constitution and sidelined interim council figures such as Alireza Arafi. Recent missile exchanges and diplomatic rebukes from the United States have heightened regime focus on internal cohesion, though the wartime environment leaves room for shifts from military escalation, health events, or elite fractures before year-end. Traders view Mojtaba's institutional ties and recent consolidation as the dominant base rate, with lower-priced alternatives reflecting residual uncertainty over long-term stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日モジュタバ・ハメネイ 64.9%
レザ・パフラヴィ 8%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ 4.3%
国家元首不在 2.8%
$8,657,154 Vol.
$8,657,154 Vol.
2026/12/31
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
65%
レザ・パフラヴィ
8%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
4%
国家元首不在
3%
アッバース・アラークチー
2%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
2%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
1%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
1%
アリレザ・アラフィ
1%
ナビド・ショマリ
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
1%
マスード・ラジャビ
1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
<1%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ 64.9%
レザ・パフラヴィ 8%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ 4.3%
国家元首不在 2.8%
$8,657,154 Vol.
$8,657,154 Vol.
2026/12/31
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
$2,076,951 Vol.
65%
レザ・パフラヴィ
$208,762 Vol.
8%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
$228,162 Vol.
4%
国家元首不在
$488,164 Vol.
3%
アッバース・アラークチー
$213,768 Vol.
2%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
$299,316 Vol.
2%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
$326,254 Vol.
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
$353,230 Vol.
1%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
$142,570 Vol.
1%
アリレザ・アラフィ
$860,892 Vol.
1%
ナビド・ショマリ
$87,163 Vol.
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
$813,099 Vol.
1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
$318,646 Vol.
1%
マスード・ラジャビ
$75,414 Vol.
1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
$90,845 Vol.
1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
$448,007 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
$195,597 Vol.
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
$93,219 Vol.
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
$290,404 Vol.
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
$179,711 Vol.
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
$52,010 Vol.
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
$100,091 Vol.
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
$83,015 Vol.
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
$64,445 Vol.
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
$52,716 Vol.
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
$33,414 Vol.
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
$87,072 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
$74,398 Vol.
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
$39,291 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
$43,666 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 after the Assembly of Experts elected him supreme leader in early March 2026, shortly following the assassination of his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the opening phase of the 2026 Iran war. The selection, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reinforced hardline continuity in an opaque process that activated Article 111 of the constitution and sidelined interim council figures such as Alireza Arafi. Recent missile exchanges and diplomatic rebukes from the United States have heightened regime focus on internal cohesion, though the wartime environment leaves room for shifts from military escalation, health events, or elite fractures before year-end. Traders view Mojtaba's institutional ties and recent consolidation as the dominant base rate, with lower-priced alternatives reflecting residual uncertainty over long-term stability.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
音量
$8,657,154終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 after the Assembly of Experts elected him supreme leader in early March 2026, shortly following the assassination of his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the opening phase of the 2026 Iran war. The selection, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reinforced hardline continuity in an opaque process that activated Article 111 of the constitution and sidelined interim council figures such as Alireza Arafi. Recent missile exchanges and diplomatic rebukes from the United States have heightened regime focus on internal cohesion, though the wartime environment leaves room for shifts from military escalation, health events, or elite fractures before year-end. Traders view Mojtaba's institutional ties and recent consolidation as the dominant base rate, with lower-priced alternatives reflecting residual uncertainty over long-term stability.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
音量
$8,657,154終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 after the Assembly of Experts elected him supreme leader in early March 2026, shortly following the assassination of his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the opening phase of the 2026 Iran war. The selection, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reinforced hardline continuity in an opaque process that activated Article 111 of the constitution and sidelined interim council figures such as Alireza Arafi. Recent missile exchanges and diplomatic rebukes from the United States have heightened regime focus on internal cohesion, though the wartime environment leaves room for shifts from military escalation, health events, or elite fractures before year-end. Traders view Mojtaba's institutional ties and recent consolidation as the dominant base rate, with lower-priced alternatives reflecting residual uncertainty over long-term stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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