Trader consensus positions Mojtaba Khamenei as the clear frontrunner for Iran's supreme leader by the end of 2026, reflecting his established clerical role, family ties to the incumbent, and influence across religious and security institutions that shape succession dynamics. This assessment draws on longstanding patterns of power consolidation within Iran's theocratic system, where internal regime preferences often outweigh external opposition figures. Reza Pahlavi and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf remain distant alternatives, constrained by exile status and limited domestic backing among key power centers. Recent months have seen no major public announcements or health-related shifts altering these probabilities, leaving the outcome dependent on opaque institutional processes and potential late developments in elite alignments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日モジュタバ・ハメネイ 64.7%
レザ・パフラヴィ 8%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ 4.7%
国家元首不在 2.9%
$8,664,590 Vol.
$8,664,590 Vol.
2026/12/31
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
65%
レザ・パフラヴィ
8%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
5%
国家元首不在
3%
アッバース・アラークチー
2%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
2%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
2%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
1%
アリレザ・アラフィ
1%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
1%
ナビド・ショマリ
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
1%
マスード・ラジャビ
1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
<1%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ 64.7%
レザ・パフラヴィ 8%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ 4.7%
国家元首不在 2.9%
$8,664,590 Vol.
$8,664,590 Vol.
2026/12/31
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
$2,077,800 Vol.
65%
レザ・パフラヴィ
$209,029 Vol.
8%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
$228,327 Vol.
5%
国家元首不在
$488,228 Vol.
3%
アッバース・アラークチー
$214,016 Vol.
2%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
$299,316 Vol.
2%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
$326,254 Vol.
2%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
$142,570 Vol.
1%
アリレザ・アラフィ
$860,892 Vol.
1%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
$354,474 Vol.
1%
ナビド・ショマリ
$87,163 Vol.
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
$813,099 Vol.
1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
$318,646 Vol.
1%
マスード・ラジャビ
$75,414 Vol.
1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
$90,845 Vol.
1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
$448,007 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
$195,597 Vol.
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
$93,573 Vol.
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
$290,404 Vol.
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
$179,711 Vol.
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
$52,010 Vol.
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
$101,935 Vol.
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
$83,015 Vol.
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
$64,445 Vol.
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
$53,322 Vol.
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
$33,414 Vol.
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
$87,102 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
$76,770 Vol.
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
$39,291 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
$43,666 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus positions Mojtaba Khamenei as the clear frontrunner for Iran's supreme leader by the end of 2026, reflecting his established clerical role, family ties to the incumbent, and influence across religious and security institutions that shape succession dynamics. This assessment draws on longstanding patterns of power consolidation within Iran's theocratic system, where internal regime preferences often outweigh external opposition figures. Reza Pahlavi and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf remain distant alternatives, constrained by exile status and limited domestic backing among key power centers. Recent months have seen no major public announcements or health-related shifts altering these probabilities, leaving the outcome dependent on opaque institutional processes and potential late developments in elite alignments.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
音量
$8,664,590終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus positions Mojtaba Khamenei as the clear frontrunner for Iran's supreme leader by the end of 2026, reflecting his established clerical role, family ties to the incumbent, and influence across religious and security institutions that shape succession dynamics. This assessment draws on longstanding patterns of power consolidation within Iran's theocratic system, where internal regime preferences often outweigh external opposition figures. Reza Pahlavi and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf remain distant alternatives, constrained by exile status and limited domestic backing among key power centers. Recent months have seen no major public announcements or health-related shifts altering these probabilities, leaving the outcome dependent on opaque institutional processes and potential late developments in elite alignments.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
音量
$8,664,590終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus positions Mojtaba Khamenei as the clear frontrunner for Iran's supreme leader by the end of 2026, reflecting his established clerical role, family ties to the incumbent, and influence across religious and security institutions that shape succession dynamics. This assessment draws on longstanding patterns of power consolidation within Iran's theocratic system, where internal regime preferences often outweigh external opposition figures. Reza Pahlavi and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf remain distant alternatives, constrained by exile status and limited domestic backing among key power centers. Recent months have seen no major public announcements or health-related shifts altering these probabilities, leaving the outcome dependent on opaque institutional processes and potential late developments in elite alignments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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