Recent forecast models from agencies including the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles point to overnight lows near 25–26°C on September 14, driven by a stable warm, humid air mass with light easterly winds and dew points around 23–24°C. Typical September climatology features minimum temperatures averaging 24–25°C, and current conditions show no strong cooling mechanisms such as enhanced cloud cover or frontal passages that would push readings notably lower. Scattered showers expected during the day may limit daytime heating but offer only modest overnight relief. Trader consensus heavily favors 27°C as the most likely minimum, reflecting slight upward model bias in recent runs and the narrow historical range for this period, while the smaller probabilities assigned to 25–26°C capture residual uncertainty in boundary-layer cooling and any localized variations across urban stations. Updated model guidance and official minimum readings will resolve the market.