The open AZ-05 seat, vacated by incumbent Republican Andy Biggs' gubernatorial bid, drives trader consensus toward Republicans at over 80% implied probability in a district with R+10 Cook PVI and Biggs' prior 21-point 2024 margin. Trump-endorsed Mark Lamb leads the crowded GOP primary field per late-2025 polling and March fundraising reports showing strong cash reserves among Republicans like Daniel Keenan ($1.2M on hand), contrasting underfunded Democrats such as Chris James and Elizabeth Lee. No general election polls have emerged, but the partisan tilt and upcoming July 21 primaries reinforce structural barriers to a Democratic upset absent major shifts like scandals or national wave turnout.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
82%
Democratic Party
14%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$6,061 거래량
82%
Democratic Party
$2,989 거래량
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open AZ-05 seat, vacated by incumbent Republican Andy Biggs' gubernatorial bid, drives trader consensus toward Republicans at over 80% implied probability in a district with R+10 Cook PVI and Biggs' prior 21-point 2024 margin. Trump-endorsed Mark Lamb leads the crowded GOP primary field per late-2025 polling and March fundraising reports showing strong cash reserves among Republicans like Daniel Keenan ($1.2M on hand), contrasting underfunded Democrats such as Chris James and Elizabeth Lee. No general election polls have emerged, but the partisan tilt and upcoming July 21 primaries reinforce structural barriers to a Democratic upset absent major shifts like scandals or national wave turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$9,050종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open AZ-05 seat, vacated by incumbent Republican Andy Biggs' gubernatorial bid, drives trader consensus toward Republicans at over 80% implied probability in a district with R+10 Cook PVI and Biggs' prior 21-point 2024 margin. Trump-endorsed Mark Lamb leads the crowded GOP primary field per late-2025 polling and March fundraising reports showing strong cash reserves among Republicans like Daniel Keenan ($1.2M on hand), contrasting underfunded Democrats such as Chris James and Elizabeth Lee. No general election polls have emerged, but the partisan tilt and upcoming July 21 primaries reinforce structural barriers to a Democratic upset absent major shifts like scandals or national wave turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$9,050종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open AZ-05 seat, vacated by incumbent Republican Andy Biggs' gubernatorial bid, drives trader consensus toward Republicans at over 80% implied probability in a district with R+10 Cook PVI and Biggs' prior 21-point 2024 margin. Trump-endorsed Mark Lamb leads the crowded GOP primary field per late-2025 polling and March fundraising reports showing strong cash reserves among Republicans like Daniel Keenan ($1.2M on hand), contrasting underfunded Democrats such as Chris James and Elizabeth Lee. No general election polls have emerged, but the partisan tilt and upcoming July 21 primaries reinforce structural barriers to a Democratic upset absent major shifts like scandals or national wave turnout.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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