Texas's 20th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in San Antonio, where incumbent Joaquin Castro secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 88 percent of the vote. The area's large Hispanic and urban electorate has delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including Kamala Harris's 63.5 percent share in 2024. With Republican nominee Edgardo Baez facing limited resources and no notable primary upset, trader consensus reflects the district's structural partisan alignment and Castro's established incumbency advantage ahead of the November general election. Shifts would require an unforeseen local scandal or health development involving the incumbent.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$12,388 거래량
$12,388 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$12,388 거래량
$12,388 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$9,001 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$3,387 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 20th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in San Antonio, where incumbent Joaquin Castro secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 88 percent of the vote. The area's large Hispanic and urban electorate has delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including Kamala Harris's 63.5 percent share in 2024. With Republican nominee Edgardo Baez facing limited resources and no notable primary upset, trader consensus reflects the district's structural partisan alignment and Castro's established incumbency advantage ahead of the November general election. Shifts would require an unforeseen local scandal or health development involving the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$12,388종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 20th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in San Antonio, where incumbent Joaquin Castro secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 88 percent of the vote. The area's large Hispanic and urban electorate has delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including Kamala Harris's 63.5 percent share in 2024. With Republican nominee Edgardo Baez facing limited resources and no notable primary upset, trader consensus reflects the district's structural partisan alignment and Castro's established incumbency advantage ahead of the November general election. Shifts would require an unforeseen local scandal or health development involving the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$12,388종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 20th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in San Antonio, where incumbent Joaquin Castro secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 88 percent of the vote. The area's large Hispanic and urban electorate has delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including Kamala Harris's 63.5 percent share in 2024. With Republican nominee Edgardo Baez facing limited resources and no notable primary upset, trader consensus reflects the district's structural partisan alignment and Castro's established incumbency advantage ahead of the November general election. Shifts would require an unforeseen local scandal or health development involving the incumbent.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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