Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability in the MA-03 House race, reflecting the district's D+11 Cook PVI, her landslide reelection history—including 97.5% in 2024—and $1.7 million cash-on-hand edge as of late March. Recent candidate filings by May 5 show minimal threats: primary challenger Gaige Clark (D) and Republican Gary Grossi lack resources, while ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections label it Solid/Safe Democratic despite a rightward presidential shift to Harris 58%-Trump 39% in 2024. September 1 primaries loom, but upset scenarios like a Trahan scandal, strong GOP recruit, health issue, or Republican midterm wave remain low-probability catalysts for change.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$13,839 거래량
$13,839 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
$13,839 거래량
$13,839 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$5,045 거래량
93%
Republican Party
$8,794 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability in the MA-03 House race, reflecting the district's D+11 Cook PVI, her landslide reelection history—including 97.5% in 2024—and $1.7 million cash-on-hand edge as of late March. Recent candidate filings by May 5 show minimal threats: primary challenger Gaige Clark (D) and Republican Gary Grossi lack resources, while ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections label it Solid/Safe Democratic despite a rightward presidential shift to Harris 58%-Trump 39% in 2024. September 1 primaries loom, but upset scenarios like a Trahan scandal, strong GOP recruit, health issue, or Republican midterm wave remain low-probability catalysts for change.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$13,839종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability in the MA-03 House race, reflecting the district's D+11 Cook PVI, her landslide reelection history—including 97.5% in 2024—and $1.7 million cash-on-hand edge as of late March. Recent candidate filings by May 5 show minimal threats: primary challenger Gaige Clark (D) and Republican Gary Grossi lack resources, while ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections label it Solid/Safe Democratic despite a rightward presidential shift to Harris 58%-Trump 39% in 2024. September 1 primaries loom, but upset scenarios like a Trahan scandal, strong GOP recruit, health issue, or Republican midterm wave remain low-probability catalysts for change.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$13,839종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability in the MA-03 House race, reflecting the district's D+11 Cook PVI, her landslide reelection history—including 97.5% in 2024—and $1.7 million cash-on-hand edge as of late March. Recent candidate filings by May 5 show minimal threats: primary challenger Gaige Clark (D) and Republican Gary Grossi lack resources, while ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections label it Solid/Safe Democratic despite a rightward presidential shift to Harris 58%-Trump 39% in 2024. September 1 primaries loom, but upset scenarios like a Trahan scandal, strong GOP recruit, health issue, or Republican midterm wave remain low-probability catalysts for change.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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