Redistricting via Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District to a D+2 partisan lean—where Kamala Harris won by 3 points in 2024—prompting trader consensus at 84.5% for a Democratic general election winner despite its competitiveness. Incumbent Darrell Issa's March retirement, endorsing GOP San Diego Supervisor Jim Desmond, opened the seat and fueled Democratic infighting among nine candidates like well-funded Ammar Campa-Najjar, Brandon Riker, and Marni von Wilpert. An April SurveyUSA poll showed Desmond leading the June 2 top-two primary at 25% amid Dem vote-splitting, but Cook and Sabato rate it Lean Democratic, with the general on November 3 hinging on primary outcomes and turnout in this battleground.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
85%
Republican Party
14%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$5,754 거래량
85%
Republican Party
$4,139 거래량
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting via Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District to a D+2 partisan lean—where Kamala Harris won by 3 points in 2024—prompting trader consensus at 84.5% for a Democratic general election winner despite its competitiveness. Incumbent Darrell Issa's March retirement, endorsing GOP San Diego Supervisor Jim Desmond, opened the seat and fueled Democratic infighting among nine candidates like well-funded Ammar Campa-Najjar, Brandon Riker, and Marni von Wilpert. An April SurveyUSA poll showed Desmond leading the June 2 top-two primary at 25% amid Dem vote-splitting, but Cook and Sabato rate it Lean Democratic, with the general on November 3 hinging on primary outcomes and turnout in this battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
거래량
$9,893종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting via Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District to a D+2 partisan lean—where Kamala Harris won by 3 points in 2024—prompting trader consensus at 84.5% for a Democratic general election winner despite its competitiveness. Incumbent Darrell Issa's March retirement, endorsing GOP San Diego Supervisor Jim Desmond, opened the seat and fueled Democratic infighting among nine candidates like well-funded Ammar Campa-Najjar, Brandon Riker, and Marni von Wilpert. An April SurveyUSA poll showed Desmond leading the June 2 top-two primary at 25% amid Dem vote-splitting, but Cook and Sabato rate it Lean Democratic, with the general on November 3 hinging on primary outcomes and turnout in this battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$9,893종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting via Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District to a D+2 partisan lean—where Kamala Harris won by 3 points in 2024—prompting trader consensus at 84.5% for a Democratic general election winner despite its competitiveness. Incumbent Darrell Issa's March retirement, endorsing GOP San Diego Supervisor Jim Desmond, opened the seat and fueled Democratic infighting among nine candidates like well-funded Ammar Campa-Najjar, Brandon Riker, and Marni von Wilpert. An April SurveyUSA poll showed Desmond leading the June 2 top-two primary at 25% amid Dem vote-splitting, but Cook and Sabato rate it Lean Democratic, with the general on November 3 hinging on primary outcomes and turnout in this battleground.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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