Incumbent Republican Rep. Russ Fulcher's strong reelection bid in Idaho's 1st Congressional District, a safe Republican seat that backed Trump by 45 points, drives trader consensus to 96.8% for the GOP in the November 3 general election. Recent filings confirmed Fulcher faces minor primary challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison ahead of the May 19 Republican primary, where early voting ends May 15, but no polls suggest an upset. Democrats' primary pits low-profile Ken Brungardt against Kaylee Peterson, underscoring historical lack of competitiveness. Realistic challenges include a surprise GOP primary loss, late scandal hitting Fulcher, or extraordinary Democratic turnout shift, though base rates favor the incumbent's path to victory.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$33,743 거래량
$33,743 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
97%
민주당
3%
$33,743 거래량
$33,743 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$21,177 거래량
97%
민주당
$12,565 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Russ Fulcher's strong reelection bid in Idaho's 1st Congressional District, a safe Republican seat that backed Trump by 45 points, drives trader consensus to 96.8% for the GOP in the November 3 general election. Recent filings confirmed Fulcher faces minor primary challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison ahead of the May 19 Republican primary, where early voting ends May 15, but no polls suggest an upset. Democrats' primary pits low-profile Ken Brungardt against Kaylee Peterson, underscoring historical lack of competitiveness. Realistic challenges include a surprise GOP primary loss, late scandal hitting Fulcher, or extraordinary Democratic turnout shift, though base rates favor the incumbent's path to victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$33,743종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Russ Fulcher's strong reelection bid in Idaho's 1st Congressional District, a safe Republican seat that backed Trump by 45 points, drives trader consensus to 96.8% for the GOP in the November 3 general election. Recent filings confirmed Fulcher faces minor primary challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison ahead of the May 19 Republican primary, where early voting ends May 15, but no polls suggest an upset. Democrats' primary pits low-profile Ken Brungardt against Kaylee Peterson, underscoring historical lack of competitiveness. Realistic challenges include a surprise GOP primary loss, late scandal hitting Fulcher, or extraordinary Democratic turnout shift, though base rates favor the incumbent's path to victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$33,743종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Russ Fulcher's strong reelection bid in Idaho's 1st Congressional District, a safe Republican seat that backed Trump by 45 points, drives trader consensus to 96.8% for the GOP in the November 3 general election. Recent filings confirmed Fulcher faces minor primary challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison ahead of the May 19 Republican primary, where early voting ends May 15, but no polls suggest an upset. Democrats' primary pits low-profile Ken Brungardt against Kaylee Peterson, underscoring historical lack of competitiveness. Realistic challenges include a surprise GOP primary loss, late scandal hitting Fulcher, or extraordinary Democratic turnout shift, though base rates favor the incumbent's path to victory.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문