Iran's insistence that domestic uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable red line has kept trader odds heavily against any agreement to halt the activity by June 30. Ongoing indirect talks with the United States, mediated through Oman and Pakistan, continue to center on verification, stockpile removal, and future enrichment capacity, yet Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected frameworks that would require full suspension or relocation of enrichment activities. Recent U.S. statements emphasizing surveillance and potential strikes on any attempt to advance toward weapons-grade material have not produced new concessions, while IAEA assessments confirm persistent large stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium and limited inspector access at damaged sites. These entrenched positions, reinforced by the absence of breakthroughs in the latest negotiation rounds, underpin the strong market consensus that such an agreement will not materialize within the resolution window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,383,248 거래량
$1,383,248 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$1,383,248 거래량
$1,383,248 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's insistence that domestic uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable red line has kept trader odds heavily against any agreement to halt the activity by June 30. Ongoing indirect talks with the United States, mediated through Oman and Pakistan, continue to center on verification, stockpile removal, and future enrichment capacity, yet Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected frameworks that would require full suspension or relocation of enrichment activities. Recent U.S. statements emphasizing surveillance and potential strikes on any attempt to advance toward weapons-grade material have not produced new concessions, while IAEA assessments confirm persistent large stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium and limited inspector access at damaged sites. These entrenched positions, reinforced by the absence of breakthroughs in the latest negotiation rounds, underpin the strong market consensus that such an agreement will not materialize within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
거래량
$1,383,248종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's insistence that domestic uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable red line has kept trader odds heavily against any agreement to halt the activity by June 30. Ongoing indirect talks with the United States, mediated through Oman and Pakistan, continue to center on verification, stockpile removal, and future enrichment capacity, yet Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected frameworks that would require full suspension or relocation of enrichment activities. Recent U.S. statements emphasizing surveillance and potential strikes on any attempt to advance toward weapons-grade material have not produced new concessions, while IAEA assessments confirm persistent large stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium and limited inspector access at damaged sites. These entrenched positions, reinforced by the absence of breakthroughs in the latest negotiation rounds, underpin the strong market consensus that such an agreement will not materialize within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$1,383,248종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's insistence that domestic uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable red line has kept trader odds heavily against any agreement to halt the activity by June 30. Ongoing indirect talks with the United States, mediated through Oman and Pakistan, continue to center on verification, stockpile removal, and future enrichment capacity, yet Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected frameworks that would require full suspension or relocation of enrichment activities. Recent U.S. statements emphasizing surveillance and potential strikes on any attempt to advance toward weapons-grade material have not produced new concessions, while IAEA assessments confirm persistent large stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium and limited inspector access at damaged sites. These entrenched positions, reinforced by the absence of breakthroughs in the latest negotiation rounds, underpin the strong market consensus that such an agreement will not materialize within the resolution window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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