Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by November 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The fragile October 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire under the U.S.-brokered framework remains formally in effect but faces repeated strains from mutual violations and stalled implementation of Phase II. Israel maintains control of roughly 53-59% of Gaza territory along the “yellow line” while conducting near-daily strikes that have killed hundreds of Palestinians since the truce began, citing threats from Hamas operatives. Hamas has rejected disarmament proposals tied to reconstruction or governance reforms by the Board of Peace and National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, insisting instead on full Israeli withdrawal, unrestricted aid flows, and permanent war termination. Recent Cairo talks in early June 2026 focused on aid corridors, border reopenings, and violation complaints, yet core disagreements over sequencing persist. These dynamics, alongside limited external pressure amid the 2026 Iran conflict, shape trader assessments of cancellation risks tied to escalation thresholds or negotiation breakdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The fragile October 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire under the U.S.-brokered framework remains formally in effect but faces repeated strains from mutual violations and stalled implementation of Phase II. Israel maintains control of roughly 53-59% of Gaza territory along the “yellow line” while conducting near-daily strikes that have killed hundreds of Palestinians since the truce began, citing threats from Hamas operatives. Hamas has rejected disarmament proposals tied to reconstruction or governance reforms by the Board of Peace and National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, insisting instead on full Israeli withdrawal, unrestricted aid flows, and permanent war termination. Recent Cairo talks in early June 2026 focused on aid corridors, border reopenings, and violation complaints, yet core disagreements over sequencing persist. These dynamics, alongside limited external pressure amid the 2026 Iran conflict, shape trader assessments of cancellation risks tied to escalation thresholds or negotiation breakdowns.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
Jun 30 2026
Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich announces readiness to build three settlements in Gaza
June 30 dips to 1%1%
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared that Israel is ready to begin building three Jewish settlements in northern Gaza once government approval is granted. This move reflects Israeli expansionist policies during the ceasefire period but does not constitute an official cancellation of the ceasefire by either party.
Jun 30 2026
Israeli forces continue strikes in Gaza despite ceasefire; UN reports ongoing violations
June 30 dips to 1%2%
Israeli strikes in Gaza continued during the nominal ceasefire, causing casualties and humanitarian concerns. The UN reported expansion of Israeli control and violations along the ceasefire line. However, no official announcement from Israel or Hamas declared the ceasefire cancelled, so the market continued to price low probability of cancellation.
Jun 29 2026
IDF warns Hamas is preparing to return to war; US opposes new Israeli offensive
June 30 rises to 12%2%
The Israeli Defense Forces warned that Hamas is rebuilding military infrastructure and preparing for renewed conflict, but the US opposed a new Israeli offensive, preferring to maintain the ceasefire and advance peace plans. This indicated ongoing tensions but no official ceasefire cancellation, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price fluctuation.
Jun 14 2026
Palestinian death toll rises amid ongoing Israeli strikes despite ceasefire
June 30 dips to 1%4%
Despite the fragile ceasefire, Israeli strikes continued killing Palestinians in Gaza, with the death toll surpassing 73,000 since the war began. Both sides accused each other of violations, but no official ceasefire cancellation was declared by Israel or Hamas.
Jun 9 2026
Hamas reports progress in Cairo talks on Gaza ceasefire implementation
June 30 dips to 10%1%
Hamas announced acceptable approaches had been reached on contentious issues of the Gaza ceasefire following talks in Cairo. The discussions focused on humanitarian aid, reconstruction, and Israeli withdrawal, signaling some diplomatic progress though the ceasefire remained fragile.
May 24 2026
Hamas and Israel trade accusations over ceasefire breaches
On May 24, 2026, Hamas accused Israel of violating the ceasefire through military operations causing civilian displacement, while Israel reported killing terrorists in response. These mutual accusations highlighted ongoing tensions but no official cancellation of the ceasefire was announced.
May 24 2026
Hamas accuses Israel of violating Gaza ceasefire with strikes
June 30 dips to 1%2%
Hamas publicly accused Israel of breaching the ceasefire through military strikes on residential areas in Gaza, while Israel also accused Hamas of violations. These mutual accusations highlighted the ceasefire's fragility but did not constitute an official cancellation.
May 19 2026
Israel escalates attacks in Gaza amid ceasefire tensions
June 30 dips to 13%3%
Israel increased airstrikes in Gaza, citing imminent threats and Hamas rearming, while maintaining the ceasefire officially. This escalation raised fears of ceasefire breakdown but no formal cancellation was declared by either side.
May 13 2026
Board of Peace envoy says ceasefire stalled over Hamas disarmament
June 30 drops to 16%5%
Nickolay Mladenov, the US-backed Board of Peace envoy, stated the ceasefire was paralyzed due to Hamas not disarming, which stalled reconstruction and troop withdrawals. Hamas blamed Israel for violations, but no official ceasefire cancellation was announced, maintaining market uncertainty.
May 3 2026
Israel threatens Gaza war resumption to force Hamas disarmament
June 30 jumps to 20%10%
Israeli military officials warned of an almost inevitable new round of fighting due to Hamas' refusal to disarm and failures of the ceasefire's enforcement mechanisms. Israeli forces expanded control in Gaza, increasing tensions but no official ceasefire cancellation was declared.
May 3 2026
Israeli military official warns of likely renewed Gaza fighting over Hamas disarmament refusal
An Israeli military official stated that renewed fighting in Gaza was almost inevitable due to Hamas's refusal to disarm and the failure of international stabilization efforts, signaling a high risk of ceasefire collapse without formal cancellation.
Apr 28 2026
UN official warns Gaza ceasefire increasingly fragile amid ongoing Israeli strikes and Hamas armed activities
Assistant Secretary-General Khaled Khiari briefed the UN Security Council that the ceasefire was fragile due to continued Israeli airstrikes and armed activities by Hamas, with no agreement on disarmament, raising concerns about potential return to widespread hostilities.
Apr 13 2026
Israeli airstrikes kill Palestinians amid ceasefire talks with Hamas
June 30 dips to 26%2%
Israeli airstrikes killed at least four Palestinians in Gaza while mediators met with Hamas leaders to shore up the fragile ceasefire. The strikes underscored the ongoing violations and fragility of the truce despite diplomatic efforts.
Apr 9 2026
Hamas disarmament deadline expires; Israel prepares to resume Gaza war
June 30 dips to 28%3%
The US-imposed deadline for Hamas to accept disarmament expired without agreement, with Israel preparing for renewed combat operations. This raised fears of ceasefire collapse but no official cancellation was announced, causing market uncertainty.
Apr 2 2026
Hamas refuses to discuss disarmament without Israeli withdrawal guarantees
June 30 dips to 28%2%
Hamas told mediators it will not consider disarming unless Israel fully withdraws from Gaza as outlined in the disarmament plan. This stance has stalled progress on implementing the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, contributing to ongoing tensions.
Mar 27 2026
Israeli troops continue operations as ceasefire remains shaky but largely holds
Despite ongoing Israeli military operations against Hamas in Gaza and diplomatic efforts for disarmament, the ceasefire largely held through March 2026, reflecting a fragile but sustained truce without official cancellation announcements.
Mar 25 2026
US Ambassador urges Hamas to decommission weapons for Gaza rebuilding
June 30 jumps to 30%11%
US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz emphasized that Hamas must disarm to enable Gaza's reconstruction, reinforcing international pressure on Hamas and Israel to uphold ceasefire terms amid ongoing low-level clashes and Israeli operations.
Mar 18 2026
Israel resumes military operations in Gaza, ending January ceasefire
On March 18, 2026, Israel launched extensive airstrikes on Gaza, officially ending the ceasefire that began in January 2025. Israel cited Hamas's refusal to release hostages and rejection of ceasefire extension proposals as justification. This marked a significant escalation and collapse of the previous truce.
Mar 17 2026
Iran announces missile payload increase to one ton, signaling escalation
June 30 dips to 19%4%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Aerospace Forces Commander Majid Mousavi stated that 'all missiles will carry a payload of no less than one ton', signaling an escalation in Iran's offensive capability.
Mar 10 2026
Iran rejects US ceasefire, threatens escalation against US, British and French bases
June 30 drops to 23%7%
Iran categorically rejected the ceasefire announced by Trump, calling it 'humiliating' and 'illegitimate', and announced it would attack US, British and French military bases in the region if operations continue.
Feb 21 2026
Israeli strikes kill at least 10 across Lebanon targeting Hezbollah and Hamas sites post-ceasefire
June 30 drops to 30%11%
Israel conducted airstrikes in Lebanon killing at least 10 people, targeting sites linked to Hezbollah and Hamas shortly after a ceasefire agreement, marking a potential violation of the fragile truce.
Feb 17 2026
Hamas rejects Netanyahu aide’s 60-day ultimatum to disarm
June 30 drops to 19%11%
Hamas publicly rejected the Israeli ultimatum demanding disarmament within 60 days, warning of serious regional repercussions and signaling resistance to ceasefire terms, which contributed to market uncertainty about ceasefire durability.
Jan 26 2026
Netanyahu states next ceasefire phase is disarming Hamas, not reconstruction
June 30 jumps to 38%8%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that the next phase of the ceasefire focuses on disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza, emphasizing ongoing security concerns and setting conditions for ceasefire progress, impacting market perceptions of ceasefire stability.
Jan 26 2026
Israel recovers remains of last hostage, clearing way for phase two of ceasefire
June 30 jumps to 38%8%
Israel announced the recovery of the last hostage's remains from Gaza, removing a major obstacle to advancing the ceasefire's second phase involving disarmament and governance changes. Hamas confirmed commitment to phase one obligations, supporting ceasefire continuation.
Jan 26 2026
Netanyahu announces next ceasefire phase to focus on disarming Hamas
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the next phase of the ceasefire would involve disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza, signaling a hardening stance that increased tensions but did not end the ceasefire.
Jan 15 2026
US announces commencement of second phase of Gaza ceasefire plan
June 30 drops to 44%9%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced the start of the second phase of the ceasefire plan involving discussions on Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal, but negotiations stalled amid ongoing Israeli strikes and Hamas refusal to disarm, maintaining the ceasefire without cancellation.
Jan 14 2026
US announces transition to second phase of Gaza ceasefire plan
June 30 drops to 45%8%
US envoy Steve Witkoff announced the move to phase two of the Gaza ceasefire plan, focusing on disarmament of Hamas and governance changes, signaling a key diplomatic step but met with skepticism due to unresolved root causes. This announcement influenced market expectations about the ceasefire's durability.
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by November 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The fragile October 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire under the U.S.-brokered framework remains formally in effect but faces repeated strains from mutual violations and stalled implementation of Phase II. Israel maintains control of roughly 53-59% of Gaza territory along the “yellow line” while conducting near-daily strikes that have killed hundreds of Palestinians since the truce began, citing threats from Hamas operatives. Hamas has rejected disarmament proposals tied to reconstruction or governance reforms by the Board of Peace and National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, insisting instead on full Israeli withdrawal, unrestricted aid flows, and permanent war termination. Recent Cairo talks in early June 2026 focused on aid corridors, border reopenings, and violation complaints, yet core disagreements over sequencing persist. These dynamics, alongside limited external pressure amid the 2026 Iran conflict, shape trader assessments of cancellation risks tied to escalation thresholds or negotiation breakdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The fragile October 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire under the U.S.-brokered framework remains formally in effect but faces repeated strains from mutual violations and stalled implementation of Phase II. Israel maintains control of roughly 53-59% of Gaza territory along the “yellow line” while conducting near-daily strikes that have killed hundreds of Palestinians since the truce began, citing threats from Hamas operatives. Hamas has rejected disarmament proposals tied to reconstruction or governance reforms by the Board of Peace and National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, insisting instead on full Israeli withdrawal, unrestricted aid flows, and permanent war termination. Recent Cairo talks in early June 2026 focused on aid corridors, border reopenings, and violation complaints, yet core disagreements over sequencing persist. These dynamics, alongside limited external pressure amid the 2026 Iran conflict, shape trader assessments of cancellation risks tied to escalation thresholds or negotiation breakdowns.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
Jun 30 2026
Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich announces readiness to build three settlements in Gaza
June 30 dips to 1%1%
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared that Israel is ready to begin building three Jewish settlements in northern Gaza once government approval is granted. This move reflects Israeli expansionist policies during the ceasefire period but does not constitute an official cancellation of the ceasefire by either party.
Jun 30 2026
Israeli forces continue strikes in Gaza despite ceasefire; UN reports ongoing violations
June 30 dips to 1%2%
Israeli strikes in Gaza continued during the nominal ceasefire, causing casualties and humanitarian concerns. The UN reported expansion of Israeli control and violations along the ceasefire line. However, no official announcement from Israel or Hamas declared the ceasefire cancelled, so the market continued to price low probability of cancellation.
Jun 29 2026
IDF warns Hamas is preparing to return to war; US opposes new Israeli offensive
June 30 rises to 12%2%
The Israeli Defense Forces warned that Hamas is rebuilding military infrastructure and preparing for renewed conflict, but the US opposed a new Israeli offensive, preferring to maintain the ceasefire and advance peace plans. This indicated ongoing tensions but no official ceasefire cancellation, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price fluctuation.
Jun 14 2026
Palestinian death toll rises amid ongoing Israeli strikes despite ceasefire
June 30 dips to 1%4%
Despite the fragile ceasefire, Israeli strikes continued killing Palestinians in Gaza, with the death toll surpassing 73,000 since the war began. Both sides accused each other of violations, but no official ceasefire cancellation was declared by Israel or Hamas.
Jun 9 2026
Hamas reports progress in Cairo talks on Gaza ceasefire implementation
June 30 dips to 10%1%
Hamas announced acceptable approaches had been reached on contentious issues of the Gaza ceasefire following talks in Cairo. The discussions focused on humanitarian aid, reconstruction, and Israeli withdrawal, signaling some diplomatic progress though the ceasefire remained fragile.
May 24 2026
Hamas and Israel trade accusations over ceasefire breaches
On May 24, 2026, Hamas accused Israel of violating the ceasefire through military operations causing civilian displacement, while Israel reported killing terrorists in response. These mutual accusations highlighted ongoing tensions but no official cancellation of the ceasefire was announced.
May 24 2026
Hamas accuses Israel of violating Gaza ceasefire with strikes
June 30 dips to 1%2%
Hamas publicly accused Israel of breaching the ceasefire through military strikes on residential areas in Gaza, while Israel also accused Hamas of violations. These mutual accusations highlighted the ceasefire's fragility but did not constitute an official cancellation.
May 19 2026
Israel escalates attacks in Gaza amid ceasefire tensions
June 30 dips to 13%3%
Israel increased airstrikes in Gaza, citing imminent threats and Hamas rearming, while maintaining the ceasefire officially. This escalation raised fears of ceasefire breakdown but no formal cancellation was declared by either side.
May 13 2026
Board of Peace envoy says ceasefire stalled over Hamas disarmament
June 30 drops to 16%5%
Nickolay Mladenov, the US-backed Board of Peace envoy, stated the ceasefire was paralyzed due to Hamas not disarming, which stalled reconstruction and troop withdrawals. Hamas blamed Israel for violations, but no official ceasefire cancellation was announced, maintaining market uncertainty.
May 3 2026
Israel threatens Gaza war resumption to force Hamas disarmament
June 30 jumps to 20%10%
Israeli military officials warned of an almost inevitable new round of fighting due to Hamas' refusal to disarm and failures of the ceasefire's enforcement mechanisms. Israeli forces expanded control in Gaza, increasing tensions but no official ceasefire cancellation was declared.
May 3 2026
Israeli military official warns of likely renewed Gaza fighting over Hamas disarmament refusal
An Israeli military official stated that renewed fighting in Gaza was almost inevitable due to Hamas's refusal to disarm and the failure of international stabilization efforts, signaling a high risk of ceasefire collapse without formal cancellation.
Apr 28 2026
UN official warns Gaza ceasefire increasingly fragile amid ongoing Israeli strikes and Hamas armed activities
Assistant Secretary-General Khaled Khiari briefed the UN Security Council that the ceasefire was fragile due to continued Israeli airstrikes and armed activities by Hamas, with no agreement on disarmament, raising concerns about potential return to widespread hostilities.
Apr 13 2026
Israeli airstrikes kill Palestinians amid ceasefire talks with Hamas
June 30 dips to 26%2%
Israeli airstrikes killed at least four Palestinians in Gaza while mediators met with Hamas leaders to shore up the fragile ceasefire. The strikes underscored the ongoing violations and fragility of the truce despite diplomatic efforts.
Apr 9 2026
Hamas disarmament deadline expires; Israel prepares to resume Gaza war
June 30 dips to 28%3%
The US-imposed deadline for Hamas to accept disarmament expired without agreement, with Israel preparing for renewed combat operations. This raised fears of ceasefire collapse but no official cancellation was announced, causing market uncertainty.
Apr 2 2026
Hamas refuses to discuss disarmament without Israeli withdrawal guarantees
June 30 dips to 28%2%
Hamas told mediators it will not consider disarming unless Israel fully withdraws from Gaza as outlined in the disarmament plan. This stance has stalled progress on implementing the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, contributing to ongoing tensions.
Mar 27 2026
Israeli troops continue operations as ceasefire remains shaky but largely holds
Despite ongoing Israeli military operations against Hamas in Gaza and diplomatic efforts for disarmament, the ceasefire largely held through March 2026, reflecting a fragile but sustained truce without official cancellation announcements.
Mar 25 2026
US Ambassador urges Hamas to decommission weapons for Gaza rebuilding
June 30 jumps to 30%11%
US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz emphasized that Hamas must disarm to enable Gaza's reconstruction, reinforcing international pressure on Hamas and Israel to uphold ceasefire terms amid ongoing low-level clashes and Israeli operations.
Mar 18 2026
Israel resumes military operations in Gaza, ending January ceasefire
On March 18, 2026, Israel launched extensive airstrikes on Gaza, officially ending the ceasefire that began in January 2025. Israel cited Hamas's refusal to release hostages and rejection of ceasefire extension proposals as justification. This marked a significant escalation and collapse of the previous truce.
Mar 17 2026
Iran announces missile payload increase to one ton, signaling escalation
June 30 dips to 19%4%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Aerospace Forces Commander Majid Mousavi stated that 'all missiles will carry a payload of no less than one ton', signaling an escalation in Iran's offensive capability.
Mar 10 2026
Iran rejects US ceasefire, threatens escalation against US, British and French bases
June 30 drops to 23%7%
Iran categorically rejected the ceasefire announced by Trump, calling it 'humiliating' and 'illegitimate', and announced it would attack US, British and French military bases in the region if operations continue.
Feb 21 2026
Israeli strikes kill at least 10 across Lebanon targeting Hezbollah and Hamas sites post-ceasefire
June 30 drops to 30%11%
Israel conducted airstrikes in Lebanon killing at least 10 people, targeting sites linked to Hezbollah and Hamas shortly after a ceasefire agreement, marking a potential violation of the fragile truce.
Feb 17 2026
Hamas rejects Netanyahu aide’s 60-day ultimatum to disarm
June 30 drops to 19%11%
Hamas publicly rejected the Israeli ultimatum demanding disarmament within 60 days, warning of serious regional repercussions and signaling resistance to ceasefire terms, which contributed to market uncertainty about ceasefire durability.
Jan 26 2026
Netanyahu states next ceasefire phase is disarming Hamas, not reconstruction
June 30 jumps to 38%8%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that the next phase of the ceasefire focuses on disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza, emphasizing ongoing security concerns and setting conditions for ceasefire progress, impacting market perceptions of ceasefire stability.
Jan 26 2026
Israel recovers remains of last hostage, clearing way for phase two of ceasefire
June 30 jumps to 38%8%
Israel announced the recovery of the last hostage's remains from Gaza, removing a major obstacle to advancing the ceasefire's second phase involving disarmament and governance changes. Hamas confirmed commitment to phase one obligations, supporting ceasefire continuation.
Jan 26 2026
Netanyahu announces next ceasefire phase to focus on disarming Hamas
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the next phase of the ceasefire would involve disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza, signaling a hardening stance that increased tensions but did not end the ceasefire.
Jan 15 2026
US announces commencement of second phase of Gaza ceasefire plan
June 30 drops to 44%9%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced the start of the second phase of the ceasefire plan involving discussions on Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal, but negotiations stalled amid ongoing Israeli strikes and Hamas refusal to disarm, maintaining the ceasefire without cancellation.
Jan 14 2026
US announces transition to second phase of Gaza ceasefire plan
June 30 drops to 45%8%
US envoy Steve Witkoff announced the move to phase two of the Gaza ceasefire plan, focusing on disarmament of Hamas and governance changes, signaling a key diplomatic step but met with skepticism due to unresolved root causes. This announcement influenced market expectations about the ceasefire's durability.
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"Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?"은 7개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 49%의 "December 31"이며, 이어서 0%의 "June 30"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 49¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 49%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.
오늘 현재 "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?"은 총 $4.1 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Oct 10, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.
"Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 7개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.
"Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?"의 현재 유력 후보는 49%의 "December 31"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 49%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 0%의 "June 30"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.
"Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.
네. 정보를 얻기 위해 거래할 필요가 없습니다. 이 페이지는 "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?"의 실시간 추적기 역할을 합니다. 결과 확률은 새로운 거래가 들어옴에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트됩니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하고 다른 트레이더들이 무엇을 말하는지 댓글 섹션을 확인할 수 있습니다. 차트의 시간 범위 필터를 사용하여 확률이 시간에 따라 어떻게 변화했는지 확인할 수도 있습니다. 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 무료 실시간 창입니다.
Polymarket 확률은 자신의 신념에 실제 돈을 투자하는 트레이더들에 의해 설정되어 정확한 예측을 표면화하는 경향이 있습니다. "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?"에 $4.1 million이 거래되어 이 가격은 수천 명의 참가자의 집단 지식과 확신을 집계합니다 — 여론조사, 전문가 예측, 기존 설문조사를 종종 능가합니다. Polymarket과 같은 예측 마켓은 특히 이벤트가 정산일에 가까워질수록 강한 정확도 실적을 가지고 있습니다. 예를 들어 Polymarket의 1개월 정확도 점수는 94%입니다. Polymarket의 예측 정확도에 대한 최신 통계는 정확도 페이지를 방문하세요.
"Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?"에서 첫 거래를 하려면 무료 Polymarket 계정에 가입하고 암호화폐, 신용 또는 직불카드, 은행 이체를 사용하여 자금을 입금하세요. 계정에 자금이 입금되면 이 페이지로 돌아와 거래하려는 결과를 선택하고 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 예측 마켓이 처음이라면 Polymarket 페이지 상단의 "이용 방법" 링크를 클릭하여 거래 방법에 대한 단계별 안내를 확인하세요.
Polymarket에서 각 결과의 가격은 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타냅니다. "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?" 마켓에서 "December 31"의 49¢ 가격은 트레이더들이 "December 31"이 정확한 결과가 될 확률을 대략 49%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 49¢에 "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 맞으면 주당 $1.00을 받습니다 — 주당 51¢의 수익입니다. 틀리면 해당 주식은 $0의 가치입니다.
"Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?" 마켓은 Dec 30, 2026 전후에 정산될 예정입니다. 이는 해당 날짜까지 거래가 계속 열려 있고 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 계속 변할 것임을 의미합니다. 정확한 정산 시기는 이 페이지의 "규칙" 섹션에 명시된 대로 공식 결과가 이용 가능해지는 시점에 따라 달라집니다.
"Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?" 마켓에는 트레이더들이 분석을 공유하고, 결과를 토론하고, 최신 진전을 논의하는 978개 댓글의 활발한 커뮤니티이 있습니다. 아래 댓글 섹션으로 스크롤하여 다른 참가자들의 의견을 읽어보세요. "상위 보유자"로 필터링하여 마켓의 가장 큰 트레이더들의 포지션을 확인하거나 "활동" 탭에서 실시간 거래 피드를 확인할 수도 있습니다.
Polymarket은 세계 최대 예측 마켓으로, 실제 이벤트에 대한 지식으로 정보를 얻고 수익을 낼 수 있습니다. 트레이더들은 정치, 선거, 암호화폐, 금융, 스포츠, 기술, 문화 등 "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?"과 같은 마켓을 포함한 다양한 주제의 결과에 대한 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 가격은 금전적 확신에 뒷받침된 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영하며, 여론조사, 전문가, 기존 설문조사보다 빠르고 정확한 신호를 제공하는 경우가 많습니다.
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