Incumbent Rep. Janelle Bynum's dominant fundraising—over $2.2 million cash on hand versus $98,000 for top Republican Patti Adair—combined with a weak GOP primary field of Adair and Jonathan Lockwood, drives trader consensus to a 90.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in OR-05. Recent pre-primary finance reports from early May highlight Republicans trailing significantly, reinforcing Cook Political Report's Likely Democrat rating, upgraded last fall due to the district's D+4 PVI and Kamala Harris's solid 2024 performance here. Bynum faces only token Democratic primary opposition from Zeva Rosenbaum ahead of May 19. Late challenges could arise from a surprise GOP nominee surge, Bynum scandal, or national midterm Republican wave favoring incumbency flips.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
9%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$346 거래량
90%
Republican Party
$136 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Janelle Bynum's dominant fundraising—over $2.2 million cash on hand versus $98,000 for top Republican Patti Adair—combined with a weak GOP primary field of Adair and Jonathan Lockwood, drives trader consensus to a 90.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in OR-05. Recent pre-primary finance reports from early May highlight Republicans trailing significantly, reinforcing Cook Political Report's Likely Democrat rating, upgraded last fall due to the district's D+4 PVI and Kamala Harris's solid 2024 performance here. Bynum faces only token Democratic primary opposition from Zeva Rosenbaum ahead of May 19. Late challenges could arise from a surprise GOP nominee surge, Bynum scandal, or national midterm Republican wave favoring incumbency flips.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ET
거래량
$483종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Janelle Bynum's dominant fundraising—over $2.2 million cash on hand versus $98,000 for top Republican Patti Adair—combined with a weak GOP primary field of Adair and Jonathan Lockwood, drives trader consensus to a 90.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in OR-05. Recent pre-primary finance reports from early May highlight Republicans trailing significantly, reinforcing Cook Political Report's Likely Democrat rating, upgraded last fall due to the district's D+4 PVI and Kamala Harris's solid 2024 performance here. Bynum faces only token Democratic primary opposition from Zeva Rosenbaum ahead of May 19. Late challenges could arise from a surprise GOP nominee surge, Bynum scandal, or national midterm Republican wave favoring incumbency flips.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$483종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Janelle Bynum's dominant fundraising—over $2.2 million cash on hand versus $98,000 for top Republican Patti Adair—combined with a weak GOP primary field of Adair and Jonathan Lockwood, drives trader consensus to a 90.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in OR-05. Recent pre-primary finance reports from early May highlight Republicans trailing significantly, reinforcing Cook Political Report's Likely Democrat rating, upgraded last fall due to the district's D+4 PVI and Kamala Harris's solid 2024 performance here. Bynum faces only token Democratic primary opposition from Zeva Rosenbaum ahead of May 19. Late challenges could arise from a surprise GOP nominee surge, Bynum scandal, or national midterm Republican wave favoring incumbency flips.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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