Elevated Selic rates near 15% continue to anchor trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the market-implied odds split nearly evenly between the 1.9%–2.2% and 1.5%–1.8% bands. Persistent monetary tightening has compressed credit conditions and domestic demand, while full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus remain in the 1.7%–1.9% range, consistent with sequential moderation after 2025’s 2.3% expansion. Offsetting factors include fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and credit support that have lifted recent retail sales and April PMIs, alongside resilient external demand and agricultural base effects. The closely contested probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether these supports can offset the tightest policy cycle in nearly two decades. The IBGE release on May 29 stands as the decisive catalyst that will resolve the narrow gap between the leading outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBrazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
1.9%–2.2% 37.5%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
1.1%–1.4% 5.9%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
$21,009 Wol.
$21,009 Wol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
2%
0.7%–1.0%
2%
1.1%–1.4%
6%
1.5%–1.8%
39%
1.9%–2.2%
38%
2.3%–2.6%
18%
≥2.7%
3%
1.9%–2.2% 37.5%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
1.1%–1.4% 5.9%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
$21,009 Wol.
$21,009 Wol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
$14,390 Wol.
2%
0.7%–1.0%
$661 Wol.
2%
1.1%–1.4%
$720 Wol.
6%
1.5%–1.8%
$1,045 Wol.
39%
1.9%–2.2%
$1,635 Wol.
38%
2.3%–2.6%
$732 Wol.
18%
≥2.7%
$1,827 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 15% continue to anchor trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the market-implied odds split nearly evenly between the 1.9%–2.2% and 1.5%–1.8% bands. Persistent monetary tightening has compressed credit conditions and domestic demand, while full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus remain in the 1.7%–1.9% range, consistent with sequential moderation after 2025’s 2.3% expansion. Offsetting factors include fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and credit support that have lifted recent retail sales and April PMIs, alongside resilient external demand and agricultural base effects. The closely contested probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether these supports can offset the tightest policy cycle in nearly two decades. The IBGE release on May 29 stands as the decisive catalyst that will resolve the narrow gap between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Rynek otwarty: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Wolumen
$21,009Data zakończenia
May 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 15% continue to anchor trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the market-implied odds split nearly evenly between the 1.9%–2.2% and 1.5%–1.8% bands. Persistent monetary tightening has compressed credit conditions and domestic demand, while full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus remain in the 1.7%–1.9% range, consistent with sequential moderation after 2025’s 2.3% expansion. Offsetting factors include fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and credit support that have lifted recent retail sales and April PMIs, alongside resilient external demand and agricultural base effects. The closely contested probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether these supports can offset the tightest policy cycle in nearly two decades. The IBGE release on May 29 stands as the decisive catalyst that will resolve the narrow gap between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Wolumen
$21,009Data zakończenia
May 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated Selic rates near 15% continue to anchor trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the market-implied odds split nearly evenly between the 1.9%–2.2% and 1.5%–1.8% bands. Persistent monetary tightening has compressed credit conditions and domestic demand, while full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus remain in the 1.7%–1.9% range, consistent with sequential moderation after 2025’s 2.3% expansion. Offsetting factors include fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and credit support that have lifted recent retail sales and April PMIs, alongside resilient external demand and agricultural base effects. The closely contested probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether these supports can offset the tightest policy cycle in nearly two decades. The IBGE release on May 29 stands as the decisive catalyst that will resolve the narrow gap between the leading outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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