Trader consensus on Polymarket has rapidly converged on 25°C as the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on May 16, reflected in the 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of exactly 25°C under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limited afternoon heating. Recent surface data and satellite analysis showed temperatures aligning with mid-May climatological baselines, with no significant warm advection or urban heat-island intensification pushing readings higher. While earlier ensemble forecasts had allowed for slight upside potential, final verified measurements across multiple stations eliminated those scenarios. Revised station data or localized microclimate anomalies remain the only realistic pathways that could alter resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 16?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 16?
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$302,807 Wol.
$302,807 Wol.
May 16, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$302,807 Wol.
$302,807 Wol.
May 16, 2026
19°C or below
$20,087 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$12,423 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$12,259 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$6,633 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$4,753 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$37,336 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$77,368 Wol.
100%
26°C
$43,033 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$39,653 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$25,261 Wol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$24,002 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has rapidly converged on 25°C as the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on May 16, reflected in the 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of exactly 25°C under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limited afternoon heating. Recent surface data and satellite analysis showed temperatures aligning with mid-May climatological baselines, with no significant warm advection or urban heat-island intensification pushing readings higher. While earlier ensemble forecasts had allowed for slight upside potential, final verified measurements across multiple stations eliminated those scenarios. Revised station data or localized microclimate anomalies remain the only realistic pathways that could alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Wolumen
$302,807Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has rapidly converged on 25°C as the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on May 16, reflected in the 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of exactly 25°C under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limited afternoon heating. Recent surface data and satellite analysis showed temperatures aligning with mid-May climatological baselines, with no significant warm advection or urban heat-island intensification pushing readings higher. While earlier ensemble forecasts had allowed for slight upside potential, final verified measurements across multiple stations eliminated those scenarios. Revised station data or localized microclimate anomalies remain the only realistic pathways that could alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$302,807Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has rapidly converged on 25°C as the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on May 16, reflected in the 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of exactly 25°C under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limited afternoon heating. Recent surface data and satellite analysis showed temperatures aligning with mid-May climatological baselines, with no significant warm advection or urban heat-island intensification pushing readings higher. While earlier ensemble forecasts had allowed for slight upside potential, final verified measurements across multiple stations eliminated those scenarios. Revised station data or localized microclimate anomalies remain the only realistic pathways that could alter resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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