National Weather Service model ensembles, including the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM, currently indicate peak temperatures of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport today under mostly clear skies that maximize solar insolation and surface heating. Subtle differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing and insolation timing create a narrow spread favoring the 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F bins, which together capture over 70 % of trader-implied probability. This positioning aligns with typical late-spring climatology for the region and the verification criteria tied to official observations, while the market’s tight clustering around these outcomes reflects real-time assessment of ensemble uncertainty ahead of final resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in NYC on May 17?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 17?
86-87°F 47%
88-89°F 32%
84-85°F 16%
90-91°F 8.3%
$68,388 Wol.
$68,388 Wol.
May 17, 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
47%
88-89°F
32%
90-91°F
8%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 47%
88-89°F 32%
84-85°F 16%
90-91°F 8.3%
$68,388 Wol.
$68,388 Wol.
May 17, 2026
79°F or below
$9,591 Wol.
<1%
80-81°F
$7,187 Wol.
<1%
82-83°F
$7,952 Wol.
1%
84-85°F
$7,421 Wol.
16%
86-87°F
$7,156 Wol.
47%
88-89°F
$5,222 Wol.
32%
90-91°F
$6,996 Wol.
8%
92-93°F
$5,856 Wol.
1%
94-95°F
$4,439 Wol.
<1%
96-97°F
$4,083 Wol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$3,141 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service model ensembles, including the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM, currently indicate peak temperatures of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport today under mostly clear skies that maximize solar insolation and surface heating. Subtle differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing and insolation timing create a narrow spread favoring the 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F bins, which together capture over 70 % of trader-implied probability. This positioning aligns with typical late-spring climatology for the region and the verification criteria tied to official observations, while the market’s tight clustering around these outcomes reflects real-time assessment of ensemble uncertainty ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Wolumen
$68,388Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service model ensembles, including the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM, currently indicate peak temperatures of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport today under mostly clear skies that maximize solar insolation and surface heating. Subtle differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing and insolation timing create a narrow spread favoring the 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F bins, which together capture over 70 % of trader-implied probability. This positioning aligns with typical late-spring climatology for the region and the verification criteria tied to official observations, while the market’s tight clustering around these outcomes reflects real-time assessment of ensemble uncertainty ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$68,388Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGANational Weather Service model ensembles, including the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM, currently indicate peak temperatures of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport today under mostly clear skies that maximize solar insolation and surface heating. Subtle differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing and insolation timing create a narrow spread favoring the 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F bins, which together capture over 70 % of trader-implied probability. This positioning aligns with typical late-spring climatology for the region and the verification criteria tied to official observations, while the market’s tight clustering around these outcomes reflects real-time assessment of ensemble uncertainty ahead of final resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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