Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts have converged on a daily maximum of 28 °C at the official Otemachi station, driving the 100 % market-implied probability for that exact outcome. A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain is promoting southerly warm advection and strong insolation under mostly clear skies, conditions that align with the upper end of mid-May climatological norms for Tokyo. Short-range numerical weather prediction models show little spread within a narrow 1 °C envelope, and with only hours remaining before the official daily high is recorded, further revisions are unlikely. The primary risk to this consensus remains an unanticipated late adjustment in observational data or localized measurement variation at resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$87,291 Wol.
$87,291 Wol.
May 17, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$87,291 Wol.
$87,291 Wol.
May 17, 2026
20°C or below
$3,024 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$1,893 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$819 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$5,290 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$8,445 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$7,219 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$10,417 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$10,583 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$19,728 Wol.
100%
29°C
$11,061 Wol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$10,386 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts have converged on a daily maximum of 28 °C at the official Otemachi station, driving the 100 % market-implied probability for that exact outcome. A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain is promoting southerly warm advection and strong insolation under mostly clear skies, conditions that align with the upper end of mid-May climatological norms for Tokyo. Short-range numerical weather prediction models show little spread within a narrow 1 °C envelope, and with only hours remaining before the official daily high is recorded, further revisions are unlikely. The primary risk to this consensus remains an unanticipated late adjustment in observational data or localized measurement variation at resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$87,291Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts have converged on a daily maximum of 28 °C at the official Otemachi station, driving the 100 % market-implied probability for that exact outcome. A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain is promoting southerly warm advection and strong insolation under mostly clear skies, conditions that align with the upper end of mid-May climatological norms for Tokyo. Short-range numerical weather prediction models show little spread within a narrow 1 °C envelope, and with only hours remaining before the official daily high is recorded, further revisions are unlikely. The primary risk to this consensus remains an unanticipated late adjustment in observational data or localized measurement variation at resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$87,291Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts have converged on a daily maximum of 28 °C at the official Otemachi station, driving the 100 % market-implied probability for that exact outcome. A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain is promoting southerly warm advection and strong insolation under mostly clear skies, conditions that align with the upper end of mid-May climatological norms for Tokyo. Short-range numerical weather prediction models show little spread within a narrow 1 °C envelope, and with only hours remaining before the official daily high is recorded, further revisions are unlikely. The primary risk to this consensus remains an unanticipated late adjustment in observational data or localized measurement variation at resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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