Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts position Tokyo’s official maximum temperature at 28 °C for May 17 at the Otemachi station, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection and strong afternoon solar heating under mostly clear skies. This stable synoptic pattern aligns with mid-May climatological norms while favoring the upper end of the daily range, producing high model consensus across short-range numerical weather prediction systems. Traders have accordingly concentrated near-100 % implied probability on the 28 °C outcome, reflecting the narrow uncertainty envelope typical of high-confidence, late-stage forecasts. The primary scenarios that could still alter resolution remain an unexpected late-model shift in cloud cover or a localized measurement deviation at the official station.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$94,339 Wol.
$94,339 Wol.
May 17, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$94,339 Wol.
$94,339 Wol.
May 17, 2026
20°C or below
$3,024 Wol.
No
21°C
$1,893 Wol.
No
22°C
$819 Wol.
No
23°C
$5,290 Wol.
No
24°C
$8,445 Wol.
No
25°C
$7,250 Wol.
No
26°C
$10,417 Wol.
No
27°C
$14,452 Wol.
No
28°C
$20,264 Wol.
Yes
29°C
$12,068 Wol.
No
30°C or higher
$10,417 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts position Tokyo’s official maximum temperature at 28 °C for May 17 at the Otemachi station, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection and strong afternoon solar heating under mostly clear skies. This stable synoptic pattern aligns with mid-May climatological norms while favoring the upper end of the daily range, producing high model consensus across short-range numerical weather prediction systems. Traders have accordingly concentrated near-100 % implied probability on the 28 °C outcome, reflecting the narrow uncertainty envelope typical of high-confidence, late-stage forecasts. The primary scenarios that could still alter resolution remain an unexpected late-model shift in cloud cover or a localized measurement deviation at the official station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$94,339Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts position Tokyo’s official maximum temperature at 28 °C for May 17 at the Otemachi station, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection and strong afternoon solar heating under mostly clear skies. This stable synoptic pattern aligns with mid-May climatological norms while favoring the upper end of the daily range, producing high model consensus across short-range numerical weather prediction systems. Traders have accordingly concentrated near-100 % implied probability on the 28 °C outcome, reflecting the narrow uncertainty envelope typical of high-confidence, late-stage forecasts. The primary scenarios that could still alter resolution remain an unexpected late-model shift in cloud cover or a localized measurement deviation at the official station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$94,339Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts position Tokyo’s official maximum temperature at 28 °C for May 17 at the Otemachi station, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection and strong afternoon solar heating under mostly clear skies. This stable synoptic pattern aligns with mid-May climatological norms while favoring the upper end of the daily range, producing high model consensus across short-range numerical weather prediction systems. Traders have accordingly concentrated near-100 % implied probability on the 28 °C outcome, reflecting the narrow uncertainty envelope typical of high-confidence, late-stage forecasts. The primary scenarios that could still alter resolution remain an unexpected late-model shift in cloud cover or a localized measurement deviation at the official station.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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