Latest numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles converge on a daytime maximum of 26–27°C for Beijing on May 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and modest subsidence. This places the market-implied odds near even between those two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 28°C or higher, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in short-range surface temperature forecasts. May climatology for the capital shows average highs of 26–28°C, and current conditions align with a typical late-spring ridge pattern that limits both strong advection and significant cloud cover. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed that could nudge the peak by 1°C either way before resolution on the official observation at Beijing’s central station.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Beijing on May 18?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 18?
26°C 35%
27°C 26%
25°C 18%
28°C 17%
NOWE
NOWE
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
8%
24°C
6%
25°C
18%
26°C
30%
27°C
26%
28°C
17%
29°C
8%
30°C
2%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
26°C 35%
27°C 26%
25°C 18%
28°C 17%
NOWE
NOWE
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
$312 Wol.
2%
23°C
$22 Wol.
8%
24°C
$152 Wol.
6%
25°C
$0 Wol.
18%
26°C
$31 Wol.
30%
27°C
$0 Wol.
26%
28°C
$0 Wol.
17%
29°C
$0 Wol.
8%
30°C
$11 Wol.
2%
31°C
$115 Wol.
1%
32°C or higher
$430 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles converge on a daytime maximum of 26–27°C for Beijing on May 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and modest subsidence. This places the market-implied odds near even between those two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 28°C or higher, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in short-range surface temperature forecasts. May climatology for the capital shows average highs of 26–28°C, and current conditions align with a typical late-spring ridge pattern that limits both strong advection and significant cloud cover. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed that could nudge the peak by 1°C either way before resolution on the official observation at Beijing’s central station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Wolumen
$745Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles converge on a daytime maximum of 26–27°C for Beijing on May 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and modest subsidence. This places the market-implied odds near even between those two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 28°C or higher, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in short-range surface temperature forecasts. May climatology for the capital shows average highs of 26–28°C, and current conditions align with a typical late-spring ridge pattern that limits both strong advection and significant cloud cover. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed that could nudge the peak by 1°C either way before resolution on the official observation at Beijing’s central station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$745Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAALatest numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles converge on a daytime maximum of 26–27°C for Beijing on May 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and modest subsidence. This places the market-implied odds near even between those two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 28°C or higher, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in short-range surface temperature forecasts. May climatology for the capital shows average highs of 26–28°C, and current conditions align with a typical late-spring ridge pattern that limits both strong advection and significant cloud cover. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed that could nudge the peak by 1°C either way before resolution on the official observation at Beijing’s central station.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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