Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts have locked in an overnight low of exactly 18 °C for Tokyo on May 17, anchoring trader consensus at 99.7 % implied probability for that single outcome. A stable high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain drives southerly warm advection that suppresses radiative cooling through the night, keeping temperatures within a tight 1 °C envelope across successive model runs. This synoptic setup aligns closely with mid-May climatology for the region, where average minima typically range from 14 °C to 18 °C. The dominant risk remains a last-minute adjustment in numerical weather prediction guidance or minor observational variance at the official measurement site that could shift the recorded minimum by 1 °C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
18°C 99.8%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$15,788 Wol.
$15,788 Wol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
100%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
18°C 99.8%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$15,788 Wol.
$15,788 Wol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$1,131 Wol.
1%
15°C
$1,499 Wol.
<1%
16°C
$823 Wol.
<1%
17°C
$1,264 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$3,487 Wol.
100%
19°C
$1,778 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$3,776 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$564 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$382 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$688 Wol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$396 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts have locked in an overnight low of exactly 18 °C for Tokyo on May 17, anchoring trader consensus at 99.7 % implied probability for that single outcome. A stable high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain drives southerly warm advection that suppresses radiative cooling through the night, keeping temperatures within a tight 1 °C envelope across successive model runs. This synoptic setup aligns closely with mid-May climatology for the region, where average minima typically range from 14 °C to 18 °C. The dominant risk remains a last-minute adjustment in numerical weather prediction guidance or minor observational variance at the official measurement site that could shift the recorded minimum by 1 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Wolumen
$15,788Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts have locked in an overnight low of exactly 18 °C for Tokyo on May 17, anchoring trader consensus at 99.7 % implied probability for that single outcome. A stable high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain drives southerly warm advection that suppresses radiative cooling through the night, keeping temperatures within a tight 1 °C envelope across successive model runs. This synoptic setup aligns closely with mid-May climatology for the region, where average minima typically range from 14 °C to 18 °C. The dominant risk remains a last-minute adjustment in numerical weather prediction guidance or minor observational variance at the official measurement site that could shift the recorded minimum by 1 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$15,788Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTJapan Meteorological Agency forecasts have locked in an overnight low of exactly 18 °C for Tokyo on May 17, anchoring trader consensus at 99.7 % implied probability for that single outcome. A stable high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain drives southerly warm advection that suppresses radiative cooling through the night, keeping temperatures within a tight 1 °C envelope across successive model runs. This synoptic setup aligns closely with mid-May climatology for the region, where average minima typically range from 14 °C to 18 °C. The dominant risk remains a last-minute adjustment in numerical weather prediction guidance or minor observational variance at the official measurement site that could shift the recorded minimum by 1 °C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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