Recent high-pressure dominance across southern England has kept London’s May precipitation totals low through mid-month, aligning trader sentiment with the closely matched 10–15 mm and 15–20 mm outcomes. Following April’s record-low rainfall in the southeast—only 38 % of the long-term average—persistent anticyclonic conditions have suppressed Atlantic fronts, limiting measurable rain to scattered light showers. Official Met Office guidance now signals a continued drier trend into late May, with warming temperatures reducing the likelihood of convective activity. This setup favors totals near the lower end of historical May norms, yet model spread in steering patterns and potential late-month low-pressure incursions maintains uncertainty between the leading bins and higher ranges such as 25–30 mm.