Recent observational data from NOAA and Copernicus show 2026 beginning with globally elevated temperatures, including the second-warmest March on record and the fourth-warmest January–March period, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Trader consensus reflected in the 87% market-implied odds for Yes centers on the rapid transition to El Niño conditions now under official watch, with an 82% probability of emergence by May–July 2026 that is projected to amplify heat through late-year ocean-atmosphere coupling. This follows the record-setting 2024 peak and aligns with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño events reliably push monthly averages above prior maxima. Model ensembles indicate peak warming impacts after mid-2026, when new data releases from satellite and surface networks will clarify whether any single month crosses the threshold.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
$137,007 Wol.
$137,007 Wol.
Jan 10, 2027
$137,007 Wol.
$137,007 Wol.
Jan 10, 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from NOAA and Copernicus show 2026 beginning with globally elevated temperatures, including the second-warmest March on record and the fourth-warmest January–March period, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Trader consensus reflected in the 87% market-implied odds for Yes centers on the rapid transition to El Niño conditions now under official watch, with an 82% probability of emergence by May–July 2026 that is projected to amplify heat through late-year ocean-atmosphere coupling. This follows the record-setting 2024 peak and aligns with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño events reliably push monthly averages above prior maxima. Model ensembles indicate peak warming impacts after mid-2026, when new data releases from satellite and surface networks will clarify whether any single month crosses the threshold.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$137,007Data zakończenia
Jan 10, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from NOAA and Copernicus show 2026 beginning with globally elevated temperatures, including the second-warmest March on record and the fourth-warmest January–March period, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Trader consensus reflected in the 87% market-implied odds for Yes centers on the rapid transition to El Niño conditions now under official watch, with an 82% probability of emergence by May–July 2026 that is projected to amplify heat through late-year ocean-atmosphere coupling. This follows the record-setting 2024 peak and aligns with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño events reliably push monthly averages above prior maxima. Model ensembles indicate peak warming impacts after mid-2026, when new data releases from satellite and surface networks will clarify whether any single month crosses the threshold.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Wolumen
$137,007Data zakończenia
Jan 10, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent observational data from NOAA and Copernicus show 2026 beginning with globally elevated temperatures, including the second-warmest March on record and the fourth-warmest January–March period, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Trader consensus reflected in the 87% market-implied odds for Yes centers on the rapid transition to El Niño conditions now under official watch, with an 82% probability of emergence by May–July 2026 that is projected to amplify heat through late-year ocean-atmosphere coupling. This follows the record-setting 2024 peak and aligns with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño events reliably push monthly averages above prior maxima. Model ensembles indicate peak warming impacts after mid-2026, when new data releases from satellite and surface networks will clarify whether any single month crosses the threshold.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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