Recent forecast model runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate a daily maximum near 29°C for Chengdu on May 17, driving the leading market-implied probability at 30% for that exact outcome while spreading remaining volume across 27–30°C. This positioning reflects typical late-spring variability in the Sichuan basin, where afternoon solar heating under a weakening high-pressure ridge competes with potential cloud cover and southeasterly moisture influx that can cap or boost readings by 1–2°C. Historical May highs average 26–28°C, but recent days have shown modest warming trends consistent with seasonal progression. Final resolution hinges on official station observations tomorrow afternoon, with any last-minute model shifts in boundary-layer moisture likely to shift the distribution among the clustered 27–30°C outcomes.