**Trader consensus centers on 400-500k formal deportations in 2026 at 60.5% probability**, reflecting the current annualized pace of ICE removals under the second Trump administration. Through mid-2026 data points, removals have run at roughly 1,260 per day, projecting a full fiscal year total near 460k—well above FY2025 levels but below the administration’s stated 1 million annual target. Primary drivers include expanded ICE staffing and detention capacity, prioritization of criminal noncitizens, and continued interior enforcement operations. However, logistical constraints, ongoing court challenges, habeas petitions, and resource allocation have kept formal removal rates from scaling to higher brackets. Lower-probability outcomes above 500k or below 300k remain sidelined absent major shifts in funding, policy directives, or operational changes within the remainder of the calendar year.