The current trader consensus around 400-500k deportations in 2026 reflects the pace of ICE removals observed through mid-2026, with fiscal year 2026 figures tracking toward roughly 430k-460k based on daily averages of 1,250-1,400. Interior enforcement surged early in the term, with arrests rising sharply and detention capacity expanding, yet recent months show some moderation in arrest volumes and legal constraints from court orders limiting operations. Administration targets of one million annual removals have not materialized due to logistical limits, cooperation challenges with localities, and a shift toward prioritizing criminal noncitizens amid declining border encounters. These operational realities, rather than broader policy shifts, anchor the market's leading outcome while leaving room for variance based on enforcement scaling in the remainder of the year.