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icon for Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?

Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?

icon for Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?

Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?

dez 31

dez 31

400-500 mil 64%

300-400 mil 18%

500-600 mil 9.2%

>1 milhão 3.2%

Polymarket

$122,647 Vol.

400-500 mil 64%

300-400 mil 18%

500-600 mil 9.2%

>1 milhão 3.2%

Polymarket

$122,647 Vol.

<200 mil

$10,181 Vol.

2%

200-300 mil

$9,657 Vol.

<1%

300-400 mil

$14,906 Vol.

18%

400-500 mil

$7,727 Vol.

60%

500-600 mil

$6,316 Vol.

9%

600-700 mil

$5,645 Vol.

2%

700-800 mil

$41,851 Vol.

1%

800-900 mil

$12,742 Vol.

2%

900 mil a 1 milhão

$6,542 Vol.

1%

>1 milhão

$7,081 Vol.

3%

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.The current trader consensus around 400-500k deportations in 2026 reflects the pace of ICE removals observed through mid-2026, with fiscal year 2026 figures tracking toward roughly 430k-460k based on daily averages of 1,250-1,400. Interior enforcement surged early in the term, with arrests rising sharply and detention capacity expanding, yet recent months show some moderation in arrest volumes and legal constraints from court orders limiting operations. Administration targets of one million annual removals have not materialized due to logistical limits, cooperation challenges with localities, and a shift toward prioritizing criminal noncitizens amid declining border encounters. These operational realities, rather than broader policy shifts, anchor the market's leading outcome while leaving room for variance based on enforcement scaling in the remainder of the year.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$122,647
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.The current trader consensus around 400-500k deportations in 2026 reflects the pace of ICE removals observed through mid-2026, with fiscal year 2026 figures tracking toward roughly 430k-460k based on daily averages of 1,250-1,400. Interior enforcement surged early in the term, with arrests rising sharply and detention capacity expanding, yet recent months show some moderation in arrest volumes and legal constraints from court orders limiting operations. Administration targets of one million annual removals have not materialized due to logistical limits, cooperation challenges with localities, and a shift toward prioritizing criminal noncitizens amid declining border encounters. These operational realities, rather than broader policy shifts, anchor the market's leading outcome while leaving room for variance based on enforcement scaling in the remainder of the year.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$122,647
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "400-500 mil" at 60%, followed by "300-400 mil" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?" has generated $122.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?" is "400-500 mil" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "300-400 mil" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quantas pessoas Trump deportará em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.