Recent Israeli opinion polls show Likud projected at roughly 21–27 Knesset seats, placing the 25–29 and 20–24 bands in near parity and leaving both blocs short of the 61-seat majority threshold. This tightness stems from sustained voter scrutiny of the party’s security record since October 2023, internal primaries that could reorder its list, and direct competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has matched or exceeded Likud in multiple surveys. Coalition partners on the religious right and far right continue to anchor the incumbent bloc while centrist and opposition parties gain on governance and draft issues. Late-campaign security developments, shifts in turnout among swing or Arab voters, or post-election coalition arithmetic could widen the gap before the October 27 vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado25-29 35%
20-24 33%
<20 18.8%
30-34 15%
$99,301 Vol.
$99,301 Vol.
27 out 2026
<20
19%
20-24
33%
25-29
35%
30-34
15%
35+
3%
25-29 35%
20-24 33%
<20 18.8%
30-34 15%
$99,301 Vol.
$99,301 Vol.
27 out 2026
<20
$33,017 Vol.
19%
20-24
$15,423 Vol.
33%
25-29
$24,287 Vol.
35%
30-34
$18,387 Vol.
15%
35+
$8,186 Vol.
3%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent Israeli opinion polls show Likud projected at roughly 21–27 Knesset seats, placing the 25–29 and 20–24 bands in near parity and leaving both blocs short of the 61-seat majority threshold. This tightness stems from sustained voter scrutiny of the party’s security record since October 2023, internal primaries that could reorder its list, and direct competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has matched or exceeded Likud in multiple surveys. Coalition partners on the religious right and far right continue to anchor the incumbent bloc while centrist and opposition parties gain on governance and draft issues. Late-campaign security developments, shifts in turnout among swing or Arab voters, or post-election coalition arithmetic could widen the gap before the October 27 vote.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Mercado Aberto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$99,301Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent Israeli opinion polls show Likud projected at roughly 21–27 Knesset seats, placing the 25–29 and 20–24 bands in near parity and leaving both blocs short of the 61-seat majority threshold. This tightness stems from sustained voter scrutiny of the party’s security record since October 2023, internal primaries that could reorder its list, and direct competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has matched or exceeded Likud in multiple surveys. Coalition partners on the religious right and far right continue to anchor the incumbent bloc while centrist and opposition parties gain on governance and draft issues. Late-campaign security developments, shifts in turnout among swing or Arab voters, or post-election coalition arithmetic could widen the gap before the October 27 vote.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$99,301Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Israeli opinion polls show Likud projected at roughly 21–27 Knesset seats, placing the 25–29 and 20–24 bands in near parity and leaving both blocs short of the 61-seat majority threshold. This tightness stems from sustained voter scrutiny of the party’s security record since October 2023, internal primaries that could reorder its list, and direct competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has matched or exceeded Likud in multiple surveys. Coalition partners on the religious right and far right continue to anchor the incumbent bloc while centrist and opposition parties gain on governance and draft issues. Late-campaign security developments, shifts in turnout among swing or Arab voters, or post-election coalition arithmetic could widen the gap before the October 27 vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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