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Eleições·Médio Oriente

Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano

icon for Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano
Eleições·Médio Oriente

Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano

Forças Libanesas (FL) 2.4%

Movimento Amal (Amal) 2.3%

Hezbollah (Hezb) <1%

Movimento Patriótico Livre (FPM) <1%

Polymarket

$617,381 Vol.

Forças Libanesas (FL) 2.4%

Movimento Amal (Amal) 2.3%

Hezbollah (Hezb) <1%

Movimento Patriótico Livre (FPM) <1%

Polymarket

$617,381 Vol.

Forças Libanesas (FL)

$161,603 Vol.

2%

Movimento Amal (Amal)

$62,285 Vol.

2%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$49,524 Vol.

1%

Movimento Patriótico Livre (FPM)

$76,865 Vol.

<1%

Partido da União (UP)

$5,587 Vol.

<1%

Partido do Diálogo Nacional (PDN)

$43,548 Vol.

<1%

Partido Mada (Mada)

$24,722 Vol.

<1%

Partido Taqaddom

$8,991 Vol.

<1%

Aliança Watani (Watani)

$5,633 Vol.

<1%

Partido Kataeb (Kataeb)

$5,159 Vol.

<1%

Movimento Marada (MM)

$6,482 Vol.

<1%

Associação de Projetos de Caridade Islâmica (ICPA)

$5,888 Vol.

<1%

ReLebanon

$9,265 Vol.

<1%

Organização Nasserista Popular (PNO)

$6,855 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Partido Social-Democrata (Lana)

$13,761 Vol.

<1%

Grupo Islâmico (GI)

$7,620 Vol.

<1%

Partido Socialista Árabe Ba'ath no Líbano (Ba'ath)

$9,691 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$8,477 Vol.

<1%

Partido Socialista Progressista (PSP)

$52,225 Vol.

<1%

Movimento de Independência (IM)

$7,894 Vol.

<1%

Partido Nacional Liberal (PNL)

$8,596 Vol.

<1%

Movimento Dignidade (MD)

$28,157 Vol.

<1%

Federação Revolucionária Armênia (ARF)

$8,549 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed by two years after parliament extended its mandate in March amid renewed full-scale conflict with Israel and widespread displacement. This delay, coupled with the 2026 war’s damage to infrastructure and supply lines, has left the contest for the 128 seats highly uncertain under the sectarian proportional system. Amal Movement holds the highest implied probability among listed options due to its organizational reach in core Shiite districts and Speaker Nabih Berri’s long-standing influence, while Lebanese Forces and other Christian parties eye potential diaspora support and reform appeals. Hezbollah faces leadership losses and scrutiny over disarmament, and opposition or independent lists remain fragmented without unified alliances. Trader pricing reflects this dispersion, where coalition negotiations, expatriate turnout, reconstruction priorities, and any further security shifts could consolidate or redistribute seats across the wide field before the rescheduled vote.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$617,381
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed by two years after parliament extended its mandate in March amid renewed full-scale conflict with Israel and widespread displacement. This delay, coupled with the 2026 war’s damage to infrastructure and supply lines, has left the contest for the 128 seats highly uncertain under the sectarian proportional system. Amal Movement holds the highest implied probability among listed options due to its organizational reach in core Shiite districts and Speaker Nabih Berri’s long-standing influence, while Lebanese Forces and other Christian parties eye potential diaspora support and reform appeals. Hezbollah faces leadership losses and scrutiny over disarmament, and opposition or independent lists remain fragmented without unified alliances. Trader pricing reflects this dispersion, where coalition negotiations, expatriate turnout, reconstruction priorities, and any further security shifts could consolidate or redistribute seats across the wide field before the rescheduled vote.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$617,381
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Forças Libanesas (FL)" at 2%, followed by "Movimento Amal (Amal)" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 2¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 2% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" has generated $617.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" is "Forças Libanesas (FL)" at just 2%, with "Movimento Amal (Amal)" close behind at 2%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.