The overwhelming trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability for a 14°C low in Seoul on May 16 reflects converging short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble models, which settled on an overnight minimum of exactly 14°C. Mostly clear skies combined with light southerly winds enabled efficient radiative cooling and limited urban heat retention, aligning with mid-May climatological norms where official Seoul Central Observatory records typically show lows between 12°C and 16°C. Recent drier air following earlier precipitation further supported this trajectory. A significant last-minute model revision or localized microclimate shift remains the only realistic scenario that could move the outcome outside the narrow 14°C band before final resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Seul em 16 de maio?
14°C 99.8%
13°C ou menos <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$48,372 Vol.
$48,372 Vol.
13°C ou menos
Não
14°C
Sim
15°C
Não
16°C
Não
17°C
Não
18°C
Não
19°C
Não
20°C
Não
21°C
Não
22°C
Não
23°C ou mais
Não
14°C 99.8%
13°C ou menos <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$48,372 Vol.
$48,372 Vol.
13°C ou menos
Não
14°C
Sim
15°C
Não
16°C
Não
17°C
Não
18°C
Não
19°C
Não
20°C
Não
21°C
Não
22°C
Não
23°C ou mais
Não
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThe overwhelming trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability for a 14°C low in Seoul on May 16 reflects converging short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble models, which settled on an overnight minimum of exactly 14°C. Mostly clear skies combined with light southerly winds enabled efficient radiative cooling and limited urban heat retention, aligning with mid-May climatological norms where official Seoul Central Observatory records typically show lows between 12°C and 16°C. Recent drier air following earlier precipitation further supported this trajectory. A significant last-minute model revision or localized microclimate shift remains the only realistic scenario that could move the outcome outside the narrow 14°C band before final resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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