Recent ECMWF and KNMI model consensus places Amsterdam’s daily maximum near 14°C under a cool northwesterly maritime airstream with limited sunshine. Official short-range guidance from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute shows surface temperatures peaking in the low-to-mid 14°C range by afternoon, consistent with climatological norms for mid-May and modest radiative heating. Trader positioning at 99.4% implied probability for 14°C reflects this narrow forecast envelope. A modest increase in cloud break or slight backing of the wind could allow brief warming to 15°C, while thicker stratiform cloud or earlier marine-air advection would keep readings at or below the threshold. Updated hourly observations and the next model run will determine whether any departure from the current consensus materializes before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Амстердаме 17 мая?
14°C 99.4%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
10°C or below <1%
$30,526 Объем
$30,526 Объем
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
99%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
14°C 99.4%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
10°C or below <1%
$30,526 Объем
$30,526 Объем
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
99%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMRecent ECMWF and KNMI model consensus places Amsterdam’s daily maximum near 14°C under a cool northwesterly maritime airstream with limited sunshine. Official short-range guidance from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute shows surface temperatures peaking in the low-to-mid 14°C range by afternoon, consistent with climatological norms for mid-May and modest radiative heating. Trader positioning at 99.4% implied probability for 14°C reflects this narrow forecast envelope. A modest increase in cloud break or slight backing of the wind could allow brief warming to 15°C, while thicker stratiform cloud or earlier marine-air advection would keep readings at or below the threshold. Updated hourly observations and the next model run will determine whether any departure from the current consensus materializes before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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