Recent forecast models from the Korea Meteorological Administration show Busan under a stable high-pressure ridge on May 18, promoting clear skies and strong daytime heating that favors afternoon maxima near 29–30 °C. Ensemble runs exhibit tight clustering around these values, with modest spread arising from variable boundary-layer moisture and light southerly flow that could either enhance or suppress peak readings by 1–2 °C. Historical May climatology for the region places typical highs in the mid-20s, so current guidance represents above-average warmth tied to the synoptic pattern. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 29 °C and 30 °C because model consensus and verification trends support these thresholds, while the slim chance of 31 °C or higher hinges on any unexpected reduction in cloud cover or wind. Updated model guidance tomorrow morning will further refine the exact peak.