Recent Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts for Busan’s Gimhae station indicate a daytime high near 29°C on May 18 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge and warm southerly flow, which has lifted trader consensus toward the 29–30°C outcomes that together command over half the market. Coastal sea-breeze moderation and lingering spring variability keep probabilities spread across the 28–31°C band, consistent with mid-May climatology that typically ranges 22–25°C but has trended warmer this season. Ensemble model spread and possible shifts in wind direction introduce the observed uncertainty, with updated KMA guidance expected within the next 24 hours likely to refine resolution probabilities ahead of the event.