Recent numerical weather prediction models from Chinese meteorological agencies have converged on a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu on May 17, driving the market’s 94.2% implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with typical late-spring conditions in the Sichuan Basin, where a strengthening high-pressure ridge, light southerly winds, and moderate humidity allow afternoon temperatures to reach the upper end of seasonal norms around 29–32°C. Historical May maxima in the region average near 28°C, but current atmospheric stability and minimal cloud cover support the higher end of guidance. Traders assign only marginal odds to 32°C or above, reflecting realistic scenarios such as earlier afternoon convection or a slight westward shift in the ridge that could cap readings at 30°C. Official surface observations will resolve the market after sunset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Чэнду 17 мая?
31°C 99.0%
32°C 1.0%
33°C or higher <1%
23°C or below <1%
$61,153 Объем
$61,153 Объем
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
99%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
31°C 99.0%
32°C 1.0%
33°C or higher <1%
23°C or below <1%
$61,153 Объем
$61,153 Объем
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
99%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUURecent numerical weather prediction models from Chinese meteorological agencies have converged on a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu on May 17, driving the market’s 94.2% implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with typical late-spring conditions in the Sichuan Basin, where a strengthening high-pressure ridge, light southerly winds, and moderate humidity allow afternoon temperatures to reach the upper end of seasonal norms around 29–32°C. Historical May maxima in the region average near 28°C, but current atmospheric stability and minimal cloud cover support the higher end of guidance. Traders assign only marginal odds to 32°C or above, reflecting realistic scenarios such as earlier afternoon convection or a slight westward shift in the ridge that could cap readings at 30°C. Official surface observations will resolve the market after sunset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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