Recent model consensus from INMET and CPTEC points to a daytime maximum near the mid-May climatological average of 22°C for São Paulo, driven by stable high-pressure ridging, moderate southerly flow, and partial afternoon cloud cover that limits solar heating. This positioning explains the 67.3% market-implied probability for exactly 22°C, with the 33.5% chance of 23°C or higher reflecting residual uncertainty in clearing skies or brief warm advection. Historical May records show highs rarely exceeding 24°C this late in autumn, while lower outcomes remain negligible given current 10-day temperature trends and absence of cold-front intrusions. Final station readings from central São Paulo will resolve the market once peak afternoon observations are confirmed.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Сан-Паулу 17 мая?
22°C 79.2%
23°C or higher 36%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
$52,038 Объем
$52,038 Объем
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
74%
23°C or higher
36%
22°C 79.2%
23°C or higher 36%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
$52,038 Объем
$52,038 Объем
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
74%
23°C or higher
36%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRRecent model consensus from INMET and CPTEC points to a daytime maximum near the mid-May climatological average of 22°C for São Paulo, driven by stable high-pressure ridging, moderate southerly flow, and partial afternoon cloud cover that limits solar heating. This positioning explains the 67.3% market-implied probability for exactly 22°C, with the 33.5% chance of 23°C or higher reflecting residual uncertainty in clearing skies or brief warm advection. Historical May records show highs rarely exceeding 24°C this late in autumn, while lower outcomes remain negligible given current 10-day temperature trends and absence of cold-front intrusions. Final station readings from central São Paulo will resolve the market once peak afternoon observations are confirmed.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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